School of Economics, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad, Pakistan.
Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE), Islamabad, Pakistan.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 Dec;28(47):66772-66786. doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-15077-w. Epub 2021 Jul 8.
This paper examines the relationship between deagriculturalization, economic growth, and CO emissions in Pakistan from the period 1975 to 2018 by employing a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model and Granger causality approach. The asymmetric ARDL findings show that there is a significant negative relationship between agriculturalization and economic growth, while deagriculturalization does not induce economic growth in the long run in Pakistan. Moreover, agriculturalization and deagriculturalization have a negative significant effect on Pakistan's carbon emissions in the long run. This study concludes that the asymmetric results deviate from symmetric results in Pakistan. The asymmetric causality test shows unidirectional asymmetric causality running from agriculturalization, deagriculturalization, and CO emissions. Moreover, agriculturalization and deagriculturalization do not Granger cause economic growth in Pakistan. Based on the results, the study stressed to formulate such policies which support economic growth and lower carbon emissions through reforming agriculture sector practices. These outcomes are very useful for Pakistan to formulate relevant policies.
本文利用非线性自回归分布滞后 (NARDL) 模型和格兰杰因果关系方法，考察了 1975 年至 2018 年期间巴基斯坦去农业化、经济增长和二氧化碳排放之间的关系。不对称 ARDL 结果表明，农业化与经济增长之间存在显著的负相关关系，而在长期内，去农业化并不能促进巴基斯坦的经济增长。此外，农业化和去农业化对巴基斯坦的碳排放有长期的负向显著影响。本研究得出的结论是，不对称结果与巴基斯坦的对称结果不符。不对称因果检验表明，从农业化、去农业化和二氧化碳排放单向不对称因果关系。此外，农业化和去农业化并不能引起巴基斯坦的经济增长。基于这些结果，研究强调制定支持经济增长和通过改革农业部门实践降低碳排放的政策。这些结果对巴基斯坦制定相关政策非常有用。
