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大规模犬群人口统计学、犬管理和咬伤风险因素分析:柬埔寨狂犬病控制的关键步骤。

Large scale dog population demography, dog management and bite risk factors analysis: A crucial step towards rabies control in Cambodia.

机构信息

International Center of Research in Agriculture for Development (CIRAD), UMR ASTRE, Montpellier, France.

ASTRE, University of Montpellier, CIRAD, INRA, Phnom Penh, Cambodia.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2021 Jul 8;16(7):e0254192. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0254192. eCollection 2021.

Abstract

Cambodia is a rabid-endemic country. However, data on dog population characteristics are lacking, and there is no national dog vaccination program. We implemented the first extensive door-to-door longitudinal survey in 2 Cambodian provinces, namely Kandal and Battambang, to estimate dog population demographic parameters, identify dog ownership determinants, analyze dog management practices and estimate the yearly cumulative bite incidence and associated factors. During the first session, more than 5000 dogs were recorded and identified. Data on families, dogs and cats characteristics, as well as the number of bites experienced the year before in the family, were recorded. One year later, a second session was performed in both provinces to record missing dogs and the reasons for missing. Age-specific survival rates of the dog populations were computed using Kaplan-Meier estimates. Ownership determinants and bite risk factors were identified using a negative binomial regression model. Dog trade and dog meat consumption were often reported. We estimated high dog-to-human ratios (1:3.8 in Kandal, and 1:3.3 in Battambang). The mean age of dog populations was 26.4 months in Kandal against 24.3 in Battambang, with a survival rate of 52% at 24 months in Kandal (34% only in Battambang). They were no feral dogs, but the large majority of recorded dogs were free roaming. In both provinces, the number of dogs significantly increased in families with children younger than 15, and when the head of the family was a male. The estimated yearly cumulative bite incidences were 2.3 and 3.1% in Kandal and Battambang provinces respectively, and are among the highest in the world. Our survey provides valuable data to focus information programs, parametrize transmission models and identify efficient vaccination strategies to control rabies in Cambodia in the future.

摘要

柬埔寨是一个狂犬病流行地区。然而,缺乏有关犬只数量特征的资料,也没有全国性的犬只免疫接种计划。我们在柬埔寨的两个省份,即干丹省和马德望省,进行了首次广泛的逐户纵向调查,以估计犬只的人口统计参数,确定犬只拥有者的决定因素,分析犬只管理做法,并估计每年的累计咬伤发生率及其相关因素。在第一次调查中,记录并识别了 5000 多只狗。记录了有关家庭、狗和猫的特征以及前一年家庭中经历的咬伤数量的数据。一年后,在两个省份都进行了第二次调查,以记录失踪的狗及其失踪原因。使用 Kaplan-Meier 估计法计算了犬群的年龄特定生存率。使用负二项回归模型确定了拥有者的决定因素和咬伤风险因素。经常报告有犬只交易和狗肉消费。我们估计了高的犬与人的比例(在干丹省为 1:3.8,在马德望省为 1:3.3)。干丹省犬群的平均年龄为 26.4 个月,马德望省为 24.3 个月,24 个月时的生存率为 52%(仅在马德望省为 34%)。没有流浪狗,但记录的大多数狗都是自由放养的。在这两个省份,家中有 15 岁以下儿童和男性家长的家庭,狗的数量显著增加。在干丹省和马德望省,估计每年的累计咬伤发生率分别为 2.3%和 3.1%,是世界上最高的咬伤发生率之一。我们的调查提供了有价值的数据,可用于集中信息计划、参数化传播模型并确定有效的疫苗接种策略,以控制柬埔寨未来的狂犬病。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8f13/8266089/15b4e7902b80/pone.0254192.g001.jpg

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