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环境持久性人畜共患病的传播建模:系统综述。

Transmission modelling of environmentally persistent zoonotic diseases: a systematic review.

机构信息

Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.

Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.

出版信息

Lancet Planet Health. 2021 Jul;5(7):e466-e478. doi: 10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00137-6.

Abstract

Transmission of many infectious diseases depends on interactions between humans, animals, and the environment. Incorporating these complex processes in transmission dynamic models can help inform policy and disease control interventions. We identified 20 diseases involving environmentally persistent pathogens (ie, pathogens that survive for more than 48 h in the environment and can cause subsequent human infections), of which indirect transmission can occur from animals to humans via the environment. Using a systematic approach, we critically appraised dynamic transmission models for environmentally persistent zoonotic diseases to quantify traits of models across diseases. 210 transmission modelling studies were identified and most studies considered diseases of domestic animals or high-income settings, or both. We found that less than half of studies validated their models to real-world data, and environmental data on pathogen persistence was rarely incorporated. Model structures varied, with few studies considering the animal-human-environment interface of transmission in the context of a One Health framework. This Review highlights the need for more data-driven modelling of these diseases and a holistic One Health approach to model these pathogens to inform disease prevention and control strategies.

摘要

许多传染病的传播取决于人类、动物和环境之间的相互作用。将这些复杂过程纳入传播动力学模型有助于为政策和疾病控制干预措施提供信息。我们确定了 20 种涉及环境持久性病原体的疾病(即病原体在环境中存活超过 48 小时并且可以导致随后的人类感染),其中间接传播可以通过环境从动物传播到人类。我们使用系统的方法,批判性地评估了环境持久性人畜共患病的动态传播模型,以量化疾病之间模型的特征。确定了 210 项传染病建模研究,其中大多数研究考虑了家畜疾病或高收入环境,或两者兼而有之。我们发现,不到一半的研究将其模型验证到真实世界的数据,并且很少纳入有关病原体持久性的环境数据。模型结构各不相同,很少有研究在一个健康框架的背景下考虑传播的动物-人类-环境接口。这篇综述强调了需要对这些疾病进行更多数据驱动的建模,以及采用整体的一个健康方法来对这些病原体进行建模,以为疾病预防和控制策略提供信息。

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