Kärcher Oskar, Flörke Martina, Markovic Danijela
Faculty of Business Management and Social Sciences Osnabrück University of Applied Sciences Osnabrück Germany.
Center for Environmental Systems Research University of Kassel Kassel Germany.
Ecol Evol. 2021 Jun 8;11(13):8941-8956. doi: 10.1002/ece3.7731. eCollection 2021 Jul.
Extending assessments of climate change-induced range shifts via correlative species distribution models by including species traits is crucial for conservation planning. However, comprehensive assessments of future distribution scenarios incorporating responses of biotic factors are poorly investigated. Therefore, the aim of our study was to extend the understanding about the combined usage of species traits data and species distribution models for different life stages and distribution scenarios. We combine global model predictions for the 2050s and thermal performances of and under consideration of different life stages (adults, juveniles, eggs), timeframes (monthly, seasonally, yearly), and dispersal scenarios (no dispersal, free dispersal, restricted dispersal). We demonstrate that thermal performances of different life stages will either increase or decrease for certain time periods. Model predictions and thermal performances imply range declines and poleward shifts. Dispersal to suitable habitats will be an important factor mitigating warming effects; however, dams may block paths to areas linked to high performances. Our results emphasize enhanced inclusion of critical periods for species and proper dispersal solutions in conservation planning.
通过纳入物种特征，利用相关物种分布模型扩展对气候变化导致的范围变化的评估，对于保护规划至关重要。然而，对纳入生物因素响应的未来分布情景的全面评估研究较少。因此，我们研究的目的是扩展对不同生命阶段和分布情景下物种特征数据与物种分布模型联合使用的理解。我们结合了2050年代的全球模型预测以及考虑不同生命阶段（成虫、幼虫、卵）、时间框架（每月、季节性、每年）和扩散情景（无扩散、自由扩散、受限扩散）下的 和 的热性能。我们证明，不同生命阶段的热性能在特定时间段内要么增加要么减少。模型预测和热性能表明范围缩小和向极地转移。向适宜栖息地的扩散将是减轻变暖影响的一个重要因素；然而，水坝可能会阻断通往与高性能相关区域的路径。我们的结果强调在保护规划中要更多地纳入物种的关键时期并采取适当的扩散解决方案。
