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基于 Tapio 脱钩模型评估巴基斯坦的能源利用、环境恶化和经济发展。

Assessing Pakistan's energy use, environmental degradation, and economic progress based on Tapio decoupling model.

机构信息

College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing, China.

出版信息

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 Dec;28(48):68364-68378. doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-15416-x. Epub 2021 Jul 16.

DOI:10.1007/s11356-021-15416-x
PMID:34268697
Abstract

A comprehensive assessment of energy use, environmental degradation, and economic progress can play a significant role in transition towards low-carbon economy, and it can serve as a reference for the green economic development for the rest of the developing world. The objective of this paper is to empirically investigate the current status of conventional and renewable energy use and environmental degradation. Following this, we have analyzed the decoupling relation among environmental degradation, energy use, and economic progress in Pakistan. The study adopted the comprehensive data from year 1972-2017 and applied Tapio decoupling method to explore the decoupling status of environmental degradation, energy use, and economic progress in Pakistan. The key finding from the study shows that the overall value of carbon emissions in Pakistan is relatively increasing with the passage of time and shows about 5.26% average growth rate which is creating severe environmental degradation. There were observed several fluctuations in the trend of carbon emissions which is basically due to the policy changes in the country. From the decoupling point of view, we found the decoupling linkage between energy use and carbon emissions that is growth negative decoupling, whereas a weak decoupling relation has been observed among carbon emissions and economic progress which means that in most of the year's county has achieved more economic growth compared with the carbon emissions. In addition, the similar weak decoupling relationship was found among energy use and economic progress. In the light of these findings, it is suggested to policymakers to promote technological advancement and alternate energy that will not only improve environmental quality, but it will also promote a low-carbon economy.

摘要

对能源利用、环境退化和经济发展的综合评估,可以在向低碳经济转型中发挥重要作用,并为发展中国家的绿色经济发展提供参考。本文旨在实证研究常规能源和可再生能源利用以及环境退化的现状。在此基础上,分析了巴基斯坦环境退化、能源利用和经济发展之间的脱钩关系。本研究采用了 1972-2017 年的综合数据,并应用 Tapio 脱钩方法来探索巴基斯坦环境退化、能源利用和经济发展的脱钩状况。研究结果表明,随着时间的推移,巴基斯坦的碳排放总量呈上升趋势,平均增长率约为 5.26%,这造成了严重的环境退化。碳排放趋势出现了几次波动,这主要是由于国家政策的变化。从脱钩的角度来看,我们发现能源利用和碳排放之间存在负增长脱钩关系,而碳排放与经济发展之间存在较弱的脱钩关系,这意味着在大多数年份,该国的经济增长都超过了碳排放。此外,在能源利用和经济发展之间也发现了类似的较弱脱钩关系。鉴于这些发现,建议政策制定者促进技术进步和替代能源,这不仅将改善环境质量,还将促进低碳经济的发展。

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