Being certain that negative events will happen or that positive events will not happen: Depressive predictive certainty and change in suicide ideation over time.

INTRODUCTION

Relatively little research has examined the precise components of hopelessness that increase vulnerability to suicidal thinking. We examined whether certainty about an absence of positive future outcomes (Certainty-AP) would more strongly predict suicide ideation over time than certainty about negative future outcomes (Certainty-N).

METHOD

Young adults (N = 208), ages 18-34 (M = 19.08, SD = 2.22), with either recent suicide ideation, suicide attempt history, or past-year psychiatric diagnosis were assessed four times over 18 months.

RESULTS

We used multilevel modeling to assess within-participant differences in suicide ideation over time. Both Certainty-AP and Certainty-N predicted later suicide ideation above and beyond generalized hopelessness and depressive symptoms, when examined in separate models. However, Certainty-AP emerged as a stronger predictor of suicide ideation than Certainty-N when examined in the same model.

DISCUSSION

These findings suggest that certainty about an absence of positive future outcomes may have a more unique prospective relationship to SI than certainty about the presence of negative future outcomes. We discuss clinical and theoretical implications of these findings.