Teagasc Food Research Centre, Ashtown, Dublin 15 D15 KN3K, Ireland.
Teagasc Animal & Grassland Research Centre, Grange, Dunsany, Co. Meath C15 PW93, Ireland.
Animal. 2021 Dec;15 Suppl 1:100287. doi: 10.1016/j.animal.2021.100287. Epub 2021 Jul 24.
Meeting the food demands of a growing global population within planetary boundaries is a challenge. Sustainably producing animal-sourced foods while supplying sufficient protein to meet the requirements of a healthy diet is a particular challenge. This paper informs the development of pathways to sustainable animal production by examining trends in animal-sourced foods since 2000, including the significance of animal- relative to plant-protein sources. Drawing on three distinct scenarios defined by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), (i.e. Business As Usual (BAU), a continuation of historical trends of food preferences including initiatives to address Sustainable Development Goal targets; Stratified Societies (SSs), leaving challenges unattended; and Towards Sustainability (TS); a more equitable global society and more sustainable food system due to effective polices), future demand for animal-sourced foods is projected. Analysis is based on FAO Food Balance Sheet data (2000-2017) and projected national protein demand per capita (2012-2050). Analysis is disaggregated to five global regions defined by the World Health Organization. It finds that patterns of past demand for animal-sourced foods vary by food (e.g. red vs white meat) and region. However, the European region consistently has the highest levels of consumption of animal-sourced foods, while the South-East Asian and African regions have the lowest. The ratio of animal to plant-sourced protein varies across regions, ranging from 0.29 in Africa to 1.08 in Europe in 2017. Over time, the ratio is relatively stable or moderately increasing, driven by rising incomes in low- or middle-income countries. Under the future scenarios, all World Health Organization regions show a marked increase in demand for animal-sourced protein across BAU and SS. The TS scenario, however, projects notable declines in consumption across Europe and the Americas when compared to the 2012 BAU baseline, with a decline in milk also in the Western Pacific. In contrast, meat and milk consumption in Africa and South-East Asia is projected to increase, reflecting their far lower starting consumption levels. The analysis and subsequent discussion highlight the importance of having regional-specific strategies to deal with the challenge of sustainable livestock production and consumption, with a requirement to consider the impact of actions in one region on others. Clearly, the challenge is not merely one for science and technology but one based on wider aspects of the food system and its diverse stakeholders.
在地球生态边界内满足全球人口不断增长的粮食需求是一项挑战。可持续地生产动物源食品，同时提供足够的蛋白质以满足健康饮食的需求，是一项特别的挑战。本文通过审视 2000 年以来动物源食品的趋势，包括动物蛋白相对于植物蛋白来源的重要性，为可持续动物生产途径的发展提供了信息。该研究借鉴了联合国粮食及农业组织（粮农组织）定义的三个不同情景（即“照常营业”（BAU）、延续历史食品偏好趋势，包括解决可持续发展目标的举措；“分层社会”（SS），忽视挑战；以及“走向可持续性”（TS），由于政策有效，全球社会更加公平，食品系统更加可持续），预测了未来对动物源食品的需求。分析基于粮农组织粮食平衡表数据（2000-2017 年）和预计的人均国家蛋白质需求（2012-2050 年）。分析按世界卫生组织定义的五个全球区域进行细分。研究发现，过去对动物源食品的需求模式因食品（如红肉与白肉）和区域而异。然而，欧洲区域始终保持着最高水平的动物源食品消费，而东南亚和非洲区域则保持着最低水平。2017 年，动物源与植物源蛋白质的比例在各区域之间存在差异，从非洲的 0.29 到欧洲的 1.08。随着时间的推移，由于中低收入国家收入的增加，该比例相对稳定或适度增加。在未来情景下，所有世界卫生组织区域在 BAU 和 SS 下均显示出对动物源蛋白质需求的显著增加。然而，与 2012 年 BAU 基准相比，TS 情景预计欧洲和美洲的消费将显著下降，同时，在西太平洋地区，牛奶的消费也将下降。相比之下，非洲和东南亚的肉类和牛奶消费预计将增加，反映出它们的消费起点要低得多。分析和随后的讨论强调了制定针对特定区域的战略来应对可持续畜牧业生产和消费挑战的重要性，需要考虑一个区域的行动对其他区域的影响。显然，挑战不仅是科学和技术方面的，也是基于食品系统及其多样化利益相关者的更广泛方面的挑战。
