U.S. Geological Survey, Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center, 8711 37th Street SE, Jamestown, North Dakota, 58401, USA.
Ecol Appl. 2021 Oct;31(7):e02428. doi: 10.1002/eap.2428. Epub 2021 Aug 30.
Grasslands, and the depressional wetlands that exist throughout them, are endangered ecosystems that face both climate and land-use change pressures. Tens of millions of dollars are invested annually to manage the existing fragments of these ecosystems to serve as critical breeding habitat for migratory birds. The North American Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) contains millions of depressional wetlands that produce between 50% and 80% of the continent's waterfowl population. Previous modeling efforts suggested that climate change would result in a shift of suitable waterfowl breeding habitat from the central to the southeast portion of the PPR, an area where over half of the depressional wetlands have been drained. The implications of these projections suggest a massive investment in wetland restoration in the southeastern PPR would be needed to sustain waterfowl populations at harvestable levels. We revisited these modeled results indicating how future climate may impact the distribution of waterfowl-breeding habitat using up-to-date climate model projections and a newly developed model for simulating prairie-pothole wetland hydrology. We also presented changes to the number of "May ponds," a metric used by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to estimate waterfowl breeding populations and establish harvest regulations. Based on the output of 32 climate models and two emission scenarios, we found no evidence that the distribution of May ponds would shift in the future. However, our results projected a 12% decrease to 1% increase in May pond numbers when comparing the most recent climate period (1989-2018) to the end of the 21st century (2070-2099). When combined, our results suggest areas in the PPR that currently support the highest densities of intact wetland basins, and thus support the largest numbers of breeding-duck pairs, will likely also be the places most critical to maintaining continental waterfowl populations in an uncertain future.
草原及其内部的洼地湿地是受到威胁的生态系统，它们面临着气候和土地利用变化的压力。每年投入数千万美元来管理这些生态系统的现有碎片，以作为候鸟的关键繁殖栖息地。北美大平原洼地区（PPR）拥有数以百万计的洼地湿地，这些湿地产生了 50%至 80%的大陆水禽种群。以前的建模工作表明，气候变化将导致适合水禽繁殖的栖息地从 PPR 的中心转移到东南部，东南部有一半以上的洼地湿地已经被排干。这些预测的影响表明，需要在东南部 PPR 进行大规模的湿地恢复投资，以维持水禽的可收获数量。我们重新审视了这些模型结果，利用最新的气候模型预测和新开发的模拟草原洼地湿地水文的模型，探讨了未来气候如何影响水禽繁殖栖息地的分布。我们还介绍了“五月池塘”数量的变化，这是美国鱼类和野生动物管理局用来估计水禽繁殖种群并制定收获法规的一个指标。根据 32 个气候模型和两种排放情景的输出结果，我们没有发现五月池塘分布在未来会发生变化的证据。然而，我们的研究结果预测，在比较最近的气候期（1989-2018 年）和 21 世纪末（2070-2099 年）时，五月池塘的数量将减少 12%至增加 1%。综合来看，我们的研究结果表明，在 PPR 中，目前支持最多完整湿地盆地密度的地区，以及支持最多繁殖鸭对的地区，很可能也是在不确定的未来维持大陆水禽种群的最关键地区。
