U.S. Geological Survey, Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center, Jamestown, ND, USA.
Texas Parks and Wildlife Department, San Marcos, TX, USA.
Sci Adv. 2023 Mar;9(9):eade1112. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.ade1112. Epub 2023 Mar 1.
Natural methane (CH) emissions from aquatic ecosystems may rise because of human-induced climate warming, although the magnitude of increase is highly uncertain. Using an exceptionally large CH flux dataset (~19,000 chamber measurements) and remotely sensed information, we modeled plot- and landscape-scale wetland CH emissions from the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR), North America's largest wetland complex. Plot-scale CH emissions were driven by hydrology, temperature, vegetation, and wetland size. Historically, landscape-scale PPR wetland CH emissions were largely dependent on total wetland extent. However, regardless of future wetland extent, PPR CH emissions are predicted to increase by two- or threefold by 2100 under moderate or severe warming scenarios, respectively. Our findings suggest that international efforts to decrease atmospheric CH concentrations should jointly account for anthropogenic and natural emissions to maintain climate mitigation targets to the end of the century.
由于人为引起的气候变暖，水生生态系统的自然甲烷（CH）排放量可能会上升，尽管增加的幅度高度不确定。本研究利用一个异常庞大的 CH 通量数据集（约 19000 个气室测量值）和遥感信息，对北美最大的湿地复合体——草原湿地地区（PPR）的斑块和景观尺度湿地 CH 排放进行了建模。斑块尺度的 CH 排放受水文学、温度、植被和湿地大小的驱动。从历史上看，景观尺度的 PPR 湿地 CH 排放主要依赖于总湿地面积。然而，无论未来湿地面积如何，在中等到严重变暖情景下，到 2100 年，PPR 的 CH 排放量预计将分别增加两到三倍。本研究结果表明，为了降低大气 CH 浓度，国际社会应共同考虑人为和自然排放，以维持到本世纪末的气候缓解目标。
