Jin Xin, Cheng Jinjin, Lou Jie
Department of Mathematics, Shanghai University, 99 Shangda Road, Shanghai, 200444, PR China.
Infect Dis Model. 2021 Jul 10;6:832-838. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2021.06.003. eCollection 2021.
To investigate the transmission dynamics and temporal and spatial migration characteristics of HIV spread among men who have sex with men (MSM) in China, a total of 1012 HIV-1 partial pol sequences, including five subtypes, were studied. Bayesian analysis were applied for each subtype to infer its dynamic characters including the effective reproductive number ( ) and migration process. The mean curve of each was almost always greater than 1 (even the 95% highest posterior density (HPD) lower value) along with time, which supports the necessity for a comprehensive study about risk behaviors among young MSM group in China. We also should reappraise the free treatment strategy, especially the therapeutic effect during the free treatment policy.
为研究中国男男性行为者（MSM）中HIV传播的动力学以及时空迁移特征，共研究了包括5种亚型在内的1012条HIV-1部分pol序列。对每种亚型应用贝叶斯分析来推断其动态特征，包括有效繁殖数（ ）和迁移过程。随着时间推移，每个 的平均曲线几乎总是大于1（即使是95%最高后验密度（HPD）下限值），这支持了对中国年轻MSM群体风险行为进行全面研究的必要性。我们还应重新评估免费治疗策略，尤其是免费治疗政策期间的治疗效果。
