Department of Statistics, Utkal University, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India.
Department of Statistics, Ravenshaw University, Cuttack, Odisha, India.
PLoS One. 2021 Jul 29;16(7):e0255342. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0255342. eCollection 2021.
Suicide is a major social and health issue in India. Yearly statistics show a concerning increasing pattern of suicidal deaths in India which is higher in comparison to the global trend. There is limited evidence regarding historical analysis of suicide or any forecasting for suicide in India towards predicting the possible risks of death due to suicide.
This paper examines the trend of suicide rate and characteristics of suicide victims in India, based on the longitudinal time series data over the last 50 years-collected from the National Crime Record Bureau Reports (1969 to 2018) of the Government of India. In our analysis, we have used the time series model to forecast the suicide rates in India for the next decade. ARIMA (4,1,0) model is found to be the best fit model for forecasting the data.
There has been an observable and rising trend of suicide rates in India over the last five decades. The forecast indicates a continuance of rising suicide cases for an upcoming couple of years in India with a limited decline in the following years. The prediction model indicates a future relatively consistent pattern of suicide in India which does not seem to be a very encouraging trend. As we have not included the period staring the year 2020 onwards affected by Covid-19 and which has several disruptions in personal and family spaces, the projected suicide trend during the period of next two to three years (2020-22) may rise far high and then it may show a declining path. Along with this, there is a shift in means of suicide in the last couple of decades. Constituting the second-highest number of cases, Illness associated suicide was visibly a serious concern.
The present analysis finds that there is no visible substantial relief for suicide deaths during the coming years in India. On the other hand, more extensive exploration of sample cases may provide important information for suicide prevention. Availability of detailed and more inclusive data will be highly useful for analysis and suicide preventive policies. Investment in public health care and other welfare activities like education and employment generation will yield visible positive results in suicide control.
自杀是印度的一个主要社会和健康问题。每年的统计数据显示，印度的自杀死亡人数呈令人担忧的上升趋势，这一趋势高于全球趋势。关于印度自杀的历史分析或任何预测自杀的证据有限，无法预测自杀导致死亡的可能风险。
本文基于印度政府国家犯罪记录局报告（1969 年至 2018 年）的过去 50 年的纵向时间序列数据，研究了印度自杀率的趋势和自杀者的特征。在我们的分析中，我们使用时间序列模型来预测印度未来十年的自杀率。发现 ARIMA（4,1,0）模型最适合预测数据。
在过去的五十年中，印度的自杀率呈明显上升趋势。预测表明，在未来几年，印度的自杀案件将继续上升，随后几年的自杀率将有所下降。预测模型表明，印度未来的自杀模式相对稳定，但这并不是一个非常令人鼓舞的趋势。由于我们没有包括自 2020 年以来受新冠疫情影响且个人和家庭空间受到诸多干扰的时期，因此在未来两到三年（2020-22 年）期间，预计自杀趋势可能会大幅上升，然后可能会呈下降趋势。除此之外，自杀手段在过去几十年也发生了变化。与疾病相关的自杀是第二大主要自杀原因，这一现象令人担忧。
本分析发现，在未来几年，印度的自杀死亡人数不会出现明显的实质性缓解。另一方面，对样本案例的更广泛探索可能为预防自杀提供重要信息。详细和更全面的数据的可用性将对分析和预防自杀政策非常有用。对公共卫生保健和教育及就业机会等其他福利活动的投资将在控制自杀方面产生明显的积极成果。
