Kotebe Metropolitan University, Ethiopia; Addis Ababa University, Center for Environmental Science, Ethiopia.
Addis Ababa University, Center for Environmental Science, Ethiopia.
Sci Total Environ. 2021 Dec 1;798:149192. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.149192. Epub 2021 Jul 23.
Understanding the dependence of ecosystem services (ESs) on the dynamics of human-semi nature-coupled ecosystems is crucial for urban ecosystem resilience. In the present study, the responses of ESs to land use land cover transitions were explored and compared, selecting Addis Ababa, Adama, Hawassa, and Bahir Dar cities in Ethiopia. The geospatial data and benefit transfer approach was used to estimate the nexus over a three-decade period (1990-2020). Moreover, the bivariate Moran's I and spatial regression models were employed to analyze the spatial dependence of ESV on urbanization. The findings showed that the built-up increased by 17,341.0 ha (32.2%), 2151.3 ha (19.6%), 2715.2 ha (12.2%), and 2599.7 ha (15.7%) for Addis Ababa, Adama, Bahir Dar, and Hawassa cities, respectively over the investigated periods. Besides, the total ESV weighed by 24.8%, 8.9%, 0.7%, and 3.9% from the US$ 277.9, 55.5, 100.3, and 90.9 million for Addis Ababa, Adama, Bahir Dar, and Hawassa cities, respectively from1990 to 2020. Synergies occurred among local climate regulation and recreation services, and trade-offs existed among other services. A persistent rising trend in the ESVt was found for all cities the upsurge in Addis Ababa being much sturdier than in others. However, the elasticity of ecosystem of land use (EEL) showed that 1% of the LULC transformation was caused by 8.9% changes in ESV. Besides, the results from the global bivariate Moran's I show substantial positive spatial correlations between ESV, and Integrated Land use Dynamic Degree (ILUDD), Land-Use Intensity (LUI), and Land Use Diversity (LUD) (p < 0.001). Spatial lag model and special error model were shown to be fitting more than the Ordinary Least Square in establishing relationships among the spatial dependence of ESV on urbanization. In contrast, the aggregated ESV is significantly influenced not only by LULC dynamics but also by the spatial spillover effect. Thus, overall findings suggested an antagonistic nexus between the aggregated ESV and ESVf, since 98% of individual ESs were negatively declined as the built-up ecosystem expanded.
理解生态系统服务（ESs）对人类-半自然耦合生态系统动态的依赖，对于城市生态系统的恢复力至关重要。本研究探索并比较了 ESs 对土地利用/土地覆被变化的响应，选择了埃塞俄比亚的亚的斯亚贝巴、阿达玛、霍拉莎和巴赫达尔城市。使用地理空间数据和效益转移方法估计了三十年来（1990-2020 年）的联系。此外，采用双变量 Moran's I 和空间回归模型分析了 ESV 对城市化的空间依赖性。研究结果表明，在研究期间，亚的斯亚贝巴、阿达玛、巴赫达尔和霍拉莎城市的建成区分别增加了 17341.0 公顷（32.2%）、2151.3 公顷（19.6%）、2715.2 公顷（12.2%）和 2599.7 公顷（15.7%）。此外，亚的斯亚贝巴、阿达玛、巴赫达尔和霍拉莎城市的总 ESV 分别从 1990 年到 2020 年期间的 277.9 亿美元、55.5 亿美元、100.3 亿美元和 90.9 亿美元下降了 24.8%、8.9%、0.7%和 3.9%。地方气候调节和娱乐服务之间存在协同作用，而其他服务之间存在权衡关系。所有城市的 ESVt 都呈现出持续上升的趋势，其中亚的斯亚贝巴的上升趋势比其他城市更为强劲。然而，生态系统土地利用弹性（EEL）表明，LULC 变化的 1%导致 ESV 变化的 8.9%。此外，全球双变量 Moran's I 的结果表明，ESV 与综合土地利用动态度（ILUDD）、土地利用强度（LUI）和土地利用多样性（LUD）之间存在显著的正空间相关性（p<0.001）。空间滞后模型和特殊误差模型在建立 ESV 与城市化之间的空间相关性关系方面表现出比普通最小二乘法更好的拟合度。相比之下，聚集的 ESV 不仅受到 LULC 动态的影响，还受到空间溢出效应的影响。因此，总体研究结果表明，聚集的 ESV 和 ESVf 之间存在拮抗关系，因为 98%的单个 ESs 在建成区生态系统扩张时呈负下降趋势。
