科学能否帮助解决关于 SARS-CoV-2 大流行起源的争议?

Can Science Help Resolve the Controversy on the Origins of the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic?

机构信息

Department of Molecular Microbiology and Immunology, Johns Hopkins School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.

Department of Microbiology, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvaniagrid.25879.31, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA.

出版信息

mBio. 2021 Aug 31;12(4):e0194821. doi: 10.1128/mBio.01948-21. Epub 2021 Aug 2.

Abstract

The origins of the calamitous SARS-CoV-2 pandemic are now the subject of vigorous discussion and debate between two competing hypotheses for how it entered the human population: (i) direct infection from a feral source, likely a bat and possibly with an intermediate mammalian host, and (ii) a lab accident whereby bat isolates infected a researcher, who then passed it to others. Here, we ask whether the tools of science can help resolve the origins question and conclude that while such studies can provide important information, these are unlikely to provide a definitive answer. Currently available data combined with historical precedent from other outbreaks and viewed through the prism of Occam's razor favor the feral source hypothesis, but science can provide only probabilities, not certainty.

摘要

灾难性的 SARS-CoV-2 大流行的起源现在是两个相互竞争的假设之间激烈讨论和辩论的主题,这两个假设是关于它如何进入人类群体的:(i) 直接从野生动物来源感染,可能是蝙蝠,可能还有中间的哺乳动物宿主,以及 (ii) 实验室事故,即蝙蝠分离株感染了一名研究人员,然后该研究人员将其传播给其他人。在这里,我们询问科学工具是否可以帮助解决起源问题,并得出结论,尽管这些研究可以提供重要信息,但它们不太可能提供明确的答案。目前可用的数据结合其他疫情的历史先例,并通过奥卡姆剃刀的视角来看待,支持野生动物来源假设,但科学只能提供可能性,而不是确定性。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c79c/8406229/c2597452c840/mbio.01948-21-f001.jpg

文献AI研究员

20分钟写一篇综述,助力文献阅读效率提升50倍

立即体验

用中文搜PubMed

大模型驱动的PubMed中文搜索引擎

马上搜索