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按年龄划分的归因于环境温度的死亡生命损失差异:中国全国时间序列研究。

Age-specific disparity in life loss per death attributable to ambient temperature: A nationwide time-series study in China.

机构信息

Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China.

Zhejiang Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China.

出版信息

Environ Res. 2022 Jan;203:111834. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2021.111834. Epub 2021 Aug 4.

Abstract

Age-specific discrepancy of mortality burden attributed to temperature, measured as years of life lost (YLL), has been rarely investigated. We investigated age-specific temperature-YLL rates (per 100,000) relationships and quantified YLL per death caused by non-optimal temperature in China. We collected daily meteorological data, population data and daily death counts from 364 locations in China during 2006-2017. YLL was divided into three age groups (0-64 years, 65-74 years, and ≥75 years). A distributed lag non-linear model was first employed to estimate the associations of temperature with age-specific YLL rates in each location. Then we pooled the associations using a multivariate meta-analysis. Finally, we calculated age-specific average YLL per death caused by temperature by cause of death and region. We observed greater effects of cold and hot temperature on YLL rates for the elderly compared with the young population by region or cause of death. However, YLL per death due to non-optimal temperature for different regions or causes of death decreased with age, with 2.0 (95 % CI:1.5, 2.5), 1.2 (1.1, 1.4) and 1.0 years (0.9, 1.2) life loss per death for populations aged 0-64 years, 65-74 years and over 75 years, respectively. Most life loss per death results from moderate temperature, especially moderate cold for all age groups. The effect of non-optimal temperature on YLL rates is smaller for younger populations than older ones, while the temperature-related life loss per death was more prominent for younger populations.

摘要

年龄特异性与死亡率负担相关的温度差异(以生命损失年数衡量)很少被研究。我们调查了年龄特异性的温度-生命损失年数(每 10 万人)之间的关系,并量化了中国因非最佳温度导致的每例死亡的生命损失年数。我们收集了 2006-2017 年中国 364 个地点的每日气象数据、人口数据和每日死亡人数。生命损失年数分为三个年龄组(0-64 岁、65-74 岁和≥75 岁)。首先,我们采用分布式滞后非线性模型估计每个地点的温度与年龄特异性生命损失年数率之间的关联。然后,我们使用多变量荟萃分析来汇总这些关联。最后,我们按死因和地区计算了因温度导致的每例死亡的年龄特异性平均生命损失年数。我们观察到,寒冷和炎热天气对老年人的生命损失年数率的影响比对年轻人的影响更大,这与地区或死因有关。然而,不同地区或死因的非最佳温度导致的每例死亡的生命损失年数随年龄而降低,0-64 岁、65-74 岁和 75 岁以上人群的死亡损失分别为 2.0(95%CI:1.5,2.5)、1.2(1.1,1.4)和 1.0 年(0.9,1.2)。大多数死亡损失来自于中等温度,特别是对所有年龄组而言,中等寒冷天气的损失最大。非最佳温度对生命损失年数率的影响在年轻人群中比在老年人群中更小,而与温度相关的每例死亡的生命损失在年轻人群中更为显著。

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