Business School, Henan University, Jinming District, Kaifeng, Henan, 475004, People's Republic of China.
College of Information and Management Science, Henan Agricultural University, 15 Longzi Lake Campus, Zhengzhou East New District, Zhengzhou, Henan, 450046, People's Republic of China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2022 Jan;29(3):3944-3957. doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-15902-2. Epub 2021 Aug 16.
The COVID-19 pandemic now affects the entire world and has many major effects on the global economy, environment, health, and society. Focusing on the harm COVID-19 poses for human health and society, this study used system dynamics to establish a prevention and control model that combines material supply, public opinion dissemination, public awareness, scientific and technological research, staggered work shifts, and the warning effect (of law/policy). Causal loop analysis was used to identify interactions between subsystems and explore the key factors affecting social benefit. Further, different scenarios were dynamically simulated to explore optimal combination modes. The main findings were as follows: (1) The low supervision mode will produce a lag effect and superimposed effect on material supply and impede social benefit. (2) The strong supervision mode has multiple performances; it can reduce online public opinion dissemination and the rate of concealment and false declaration and improve government credibility and social benefit. However, a fading effect will appear in the middle and late periods, and over time, the effect of strong supervision will gradually weaken (but occasionally rebound) and thus require adjustment. These findings can provide a theoretical basis for improving epidemic prevention and control measures.
新冠疫情如今已影响全球，对全球经济、环境、健康和社会造成了多方面重大影响。本研究聚焦于新冠疫情对人类健康和社会的危害，运用系统动力学构建了一个包含物资供应、舆情传播、公众意识、科技研发、错峰工作、法律/政策警示效应的综合防控模型。通过因果回路分析，识别了各子系统之间的相互作用，并探讨了影响社会效益的关键因素。进一步，通过动态模拟不同场景，探索了最优的组合模式。主要发现如下：（1）低监管模式会对物资供应产生迟滞效应和叠加效应，阻碍社会效益的提升。（2）强监管模式具有多重表现，它可以减少网络舆情传播和瞒报、漏报率，提高政府公信力和社会效益。但在中后期会出现减退效应，随着时间的推移，强监管的效果会逐渐减弱（但偶尔会反弹），因此需要进行调整。这些发现可以为改进疫情防控措施提供理论依据。
