INFN-TIFPA Trento Institute of Fundamental Physics and Applications, Via Sommarive, 14, 38123 Povo, Trento, Italy.
European Centre for Theoretical Studies in Nuclear Physics and Related Areas (ECT*), Strada delle Tabarelle 286, I-38123 Villazzano, Trento, Italy.
Phys Rev E. 2021 Jul;104(1-1):014132. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.104.014132.
By the end of 2020, a year since the first cases of infection by the Covid-19 virus have been reported; several pharmaceutical companies made significant progress in developing effective vaccines against the Covid-19 virus that has claimed the lives of more than 10^{6} people over the world. On the other hand, there is growing evidence of re-infection by the virus, which can cause further outbreaks. In this paper, we apply statistical physics tools to examine theoretically the vaccination rate required to control the pandemic for three different vaccine efficiency scenarios and five different vaccination rates. Also, we study the effect of temporal restrictions or reliefs on the pandemic's outbreak, assuming that re-infection is possible. When examining the efficiency of the vaccination rate of the general population in preventing an additional outbreak of the disease, we find that a high vaccination rate (where 0.3% of the population is vaccinated daily, which is equivalent to ≈10^{6} vaccine doses in the United States daily) is required to gain control over the spread of the virus without further restrictions.
截至 2020 年底，自首次报告感染新冠病毒病例以来已经过去了一年；几家制药公司在开发针对已导致全球超过 100 万人死亡的新冠病毒的有效疫苗方面取得了重大进展。另一方面，越来越多的证据表明病毒会再次感染，这可能导致进一步的爆发。在本文中，我们应用统计物理工具理论上研究了在三种不同的疫苗效率情况下和五种不同的接种率下控制大流行所需的接种率。此外，我们还研究了在假设再次感染是可能的情况下，对大流行爆发的时间限制或缓解的影响。当研究普通人群的疫苗接种率在防止疾病再次爆发方面的效率时，我们发现需要高接种率（每天有 0.3%的人口接种疫苗，这相当于美国每天接种 ≈10^6 剂疫苗）才能在没有进一步限制的情况下控制病毒的传播。
