古巴在疫苗接种过程之前和期间SARS-CoV-2疫情传播的多群体分析。
Multi-population analysis of the Cuban SARS-CoV-2 epidemic transmission before and during the vaccination process.
作者信息
Guinovart-Sanjuán D, Guinovart-Díaz R, Vajravelu K, Morales-Lezca W, Abelló-Ugalde I
机构信息
Department of Mathematics, University of Central Florida, 4393 Andromeda Loop N, Orlando, Florida 32816, USA.
Departamento de Matematicas, Universidad de La Habana, San Lazaro y L 10400, La Habana, Cuba.
出版信息
Phys Fluids (1994). 2021 Oct;33(10):107107. doi: 10.1063/5.0066912. Epub 2021 Oct 8.
In this work, several mathematical models for the spread of viruses and diseases are presented. In particular, the work focuses on the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. A multi-population model is presented for the study of the interaction of various populations and the contagion of the virus between them. A second model on vaccination is presented, which allows analyzing the behavior of the disease taking into account the effectiveness of the vaccine and the speed of COVID-19 after the vaccination process. Finally, both models are applied to analyze the epidemic in Cuba. For this study, the official data reported by the Cuban Ministry of Health from March 2020 to August 2021 is used.
在这项工作中，提出了几种关于病毒和疾病传播的数学模型。特别地，这项工作聚焦于2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）大流行。提出了一个多群体模型，用于研究不同群体之间的相互作用以及病毒在它们之间的传播。还提出了一个关于疫苗接种的第二个模型，该模型允许在考虑疫苗有效性和接种过程后COVID-19传播速度的情况下分析疾病的行为。最后，将这两个模型应用于分析古巴的疫情。对于这项研究，使用了古巴卫生部2020年3月至2021年8月报告的官方数据。
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