Department of Evolution, Ecology, and Behaviour, University of Liverpool, Crown Street, Liverpool, Merseyside L69 7ZB, UK.
UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Environment Centre Wales, Deiniol Road, Bangor LL57 2UW, UK.
Proc Biol Sci. 2021 Aug 25;288(1957):20211010. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2021.1010.
As species' ranges shift to track climate change, conservationists increasingly recognize the need to consider connectivity when designating protected areas (PAs). In fragmented landscapes, some habitat patches are more important than others in maintaining connectivity, and methods are needed for their identification. Here, using the Condatis methodology, we model range expansion through an adaptation of circuit theory. Specifically, we map 'flow' through 16 conservation priority habitat networks in England, quantifying how patches contribute to functional South-North connectivity. We also explore how much additional connectivity could be protected via a connectivity-led protection procedure. We find high-flow patches are often left out of existing PAs; across 12 of 16 habitat networks, connectivity protection falls short of area protection by 13.6% on average. We conclude that the legacy of past protection decisions has left habitat-specialist species vulnerable to climate change. This situation may be mirrored in many countries which have similar habitat protection principles. Addressing this requires specific planning tools that can account for the directions species may shift. Our connectivity-led reserve selection procedure efficiently identifies additional PAs that prioritize connectivity, protecting a median of 40.9% more connectivity in these landscapes with just a 10% increase in area.
随着物种的分布范围向适应气候变化的方向转移，自然资源保护主义者越来越认识到，在指定保护区（PA）时需要考虑连通性。在破碎化的景观中，一些生境斑块对于维持连通性比其他斑块更为重要，因此需要有方法来识别这些斑块。在这里，我们使用 Condatis 方法，通过对电路理论的改编来模拟范围的扩展。具体来说，我们在英格兰的 16 个保护优先级生境网络中绘制“流量”图，量化斑块对南北功能连通性的贡献。我们还探讨了通过以连通性为导向的保护程序可以保护多少额外的连通性。我们发现，高流量斑块通常不在现有的保护区内；在 16 个生境网络中的 12 个网络中，连通性保护的平均面积比区域保护少 13.6%。我们的结论是，过去保护决策的遗留问题使得生境专家物种容易受到气候变化的影响。这种情况在许多具有类似生境保护原则的国家可能也存在。要解决这个问题，需要使用特定的规划工具，这些工具可以考虑到物种可能发生的变化方向。我们的以连通性为导向的保护区选择程序可以有效地确定额外的优先考虑连通性的保护区，在这些景观中，保护的连通性平均增加了 40.9%，而面积仅增加了 10%。
