Dolejs Josef, Homolková Helena
Department of Informatics and Quantitative Methods, University of Hradec Králové, Hradec Králové, Czechia.
Division of Pediatric Neurosurgery, Department of Pediatric and Trauma Surgery, Thomayer's Teaching Hospital and Third Faculty of Medicine, Charles University in Prague, Prague, Czechia.
Front Pediatr. 2021 Aug 11;9:657298. doi: 10.3389/fped.2021.657298. eCollection 2021.
Our previous study analyzed the age trajectory of mortality (ATM) in 14 European countries, while this study aimed at investigating ATM in other continents and in countries with a higher level of mortality. Data from 11 Non-European countries were used. The number of deaths was extracted from the WHO mortality database. The Halley method was used to calculate the mortality rates in all possible calendar years and all countries combined. This method enables us to combine more countries and more calendar years in one hypothetical population. The age trajectory of total mortality (ATTM) and also ATM due to specific groups of diseases were very similar in the 11 non-European countries and in the 14 European countries. The level of mortality did not affect the main results found in European countries. The inverse proportion was valid for ATTM in non-European countries with two exceptions. Slower or no mortality decrease with age was detected in the first year of life, while the inverse proportion model was valid for the age range (1, 10) years in most of the main chapters of ICD10. The decrease in child mortality with age may be explained as the result of the depletion of individuals with congenital impairment. The majority of deaths up to the age of 10 years were related to congenital impairments, and the decrease in child mortality rate with age was a demonstration of population heterogeneity. The congenital impairments were latent and may cause death even if no congenital impairment was detected.
我们之前的研究分析了14个欧洲国家的死亡年龄轨迹（ATM），而本研究旨在调查其他各大洲以及死亡率较高国家的ATM。使用了来自11个非欧洲国家的数据。死亡人数从世界卫生组织死亡率数据库中提取。采用哈雷方法计算所有可能年份及所有国家合并后的死亡率。该方法使我们能够在一个假设总体中纳入更多国家和更多年份。11个非欧洲国家和14个欧洲国家的总死亡率年龄轨迹（ATTM）以及特定疾病组的ATM非常相似。死亡率水平并未影响在欧洲国家得出的主要结果。在非欧洲国家，除两个例外情况外，ATTM的反比例关系是成立的。在生命的第一年，检测到死亡率随年龄下降较慢或没有下降，而在国际疾病分类第十版（ICD10）的大多数主要章节中，反比例模型在年龄范围（1,10）岁时是有效的。儿童死亡率随年龄的下降可能是由于先天性损伤个体的减少所致。10岁之前的大多数死亡与先天性损伤有关，儿童死亡率随年龄的下降表明了人群的异质性。先天性损伤是潜在的，即使未检测到先天性损伤也可能导致死亡。
