School of Civil Engineering, Xi'an University of Architecture & Technology, Xi'an 710055, China.
CCCC First Highway Consultants Co. Ltd, Xi'an 710075, China.
Comput Intell Neurosci. 2021 Aug 23;2021:9969322. doi: 10.1155/2021/9969322. eCollection 2021.
To explore the influence of weather conditions on the choice of the intercity travel mode of travelers, four modes of traveler transportation were studied in Xi'an, China, in March 2019: airplane, high-speed rail, conventional train, and express bus. The individual characteristics of travelers and intercity travel activity data were obtained, and they were matched with the weather characteristics at the departure time of the travelers. The Bayesian multinomial logit regression was employed to explore the relationship between the travel mode choice and weather characteristics. The results showed that temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, wind, air quality index, and visibility had significant effects on the travel mode selection of travelers, and the addition of these variables could improve the model's predictive performance. The research results can provide a scientific decision basis for traveler flow transfer and the prediction of traffic modes choice due to the effects of climate change.
为了探究天气条件对旅客城际出行方式选择的影响，于 2019 年 3 月在中国西安研究了四种旅客交通方式：飞机、高铁、普通火车和长途客车。获取了旅客的个体特征和城际出行活动数据，并将其与旅客出发时的天气特征相匹配。采用贝叶斯多项逻辑回归方法探究了出行方式选择与天气特征之间的关系。结果表明，温度、相对湿度、降雨量、风速、空气质量指数和能见度对旅客出行方式选择有显著影响，加入这些变量可以提高模型的预测性能。研究结果可为气候变化影响下的旅客流转移和交通方式选择预测提供科学决策依据。
