Deng Chuxiong, Zhu Damei, Nie Xiaodong, Liu Changchang, Zhang Guangye, Liu Yaojun, Li Zhongwu, Wang Shuyuan, Ma Yichun
College of Geographical Sciences, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, Hunan, 410081, PR China; Hunan Key Laboratory of Geospatial Big Data Mining and Application, Changsha, Hunan, 410081, PR China.
College of Geographical Sciences, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, Hunan, 410081, PR China; Hunan Key Laboratory of Geospatial Big Data Mining and Application, Changsha, Hunan, 410081, PR China.
J Environ Manage. 2021 Dec 1;299:113660. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113660. Epub 2021 Sep 1.
A clear quantification and spatial mapping between supply and demand of water provision service in relation to climate change and urban expansion can provide some guidance to water resources management. Nevertheless, so far, most researches ignored the dynamic changes and influences of supply-demand coupling correlations. In this study, water yield and water demand were quantified and mapped in the Xiangjiang River Basin (XRB) from 2000 to 2018 by using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) and water-demand models, then the spatial distribution characteristics and their matching relationship were identified by using the univariate local autocorrelation analysis and the common logarithm of water supply-demand ratio (WSDR). With that, the contributions of climate and socio-economic factors to the above-mentioned changes were explored by using geographic detector. Results showed that the annual water yield increased by 20.20% in 2000-2015 and decreased by 33.92% in 2015-2018 affected by precipitation and land use changes; Changsha-Zhuzhou- Xiangtan urban agglomeration (CZX) and Southwest of Yongzhou were the high value areas of water yield (>338 m/hm). Due to the urban expansion, the water demand increased by 40.50% from 2000 to 2005 and decreased by 36.39% after 2005; From 2000 to 2018, high value areas of water demand (>53566 m/hm) mainly appeared in midstream and downstream with high urbanization level, dense population and developed industry. Under the joint action of precipitation (prep) and urban expansion, the overall state of supply and demand in the upper reaches was surplus, and more than 90% of the regions in midstream and downstream were at the middle and high level of supply shortage, especially in Hengyang and Chenzhou. Consequently, the increasing needs of human beings should be emphasized from the overall perspective of the basin, the growth rate of construction land and the necessary green infrastructure should be controlled reasonably and configured for achieving win-win goals of coordinating environmental protection and urban development.
明确水资源供应服务的供需关系在气候变化和城市扩张背景下的量化及空间映射，可为水资源管理提供一定指导。然而，迄今为止，大多数研究忽略了供需耦合相关性的动态变化及影响。本研究利用生态系统服务与权衡综合评估模型（InVEST）和需水模型，对2000年至2018年湘江流域的产水量和需水量进行了量化与制图，然后运用单变量局部自相关分析和供需比（WSDR）的常用对数确定了空间分布特征及其匹配关系。在此基础上，利用地理探测器探讨了气候和社会经济因素对上述变化的贡献。结果表明，受降水和土地利用变化影响，2000 - 2015年年产水量增加了20.20%，2015 - 2018年减少了33.92%；长株潭城市群（CZX）和永州西南部是产水量高值区（>338立方米/公顷）。由于城市扩张，2000年至2005年需水量增加了40.50%，2005年后减少了36.39%；2000年至2018年，需水量高值区（>53566立方米/公顷）主要出现在城市化水平高、人口密集、产业发达的中下游地区。在降水（prep）和城市扩张的共同作用下，上游地区供需总体状态为盈余，中下游地区90%以上处于中高水平的供应短缺状态，尤其是衡阳和郴州。因此，应从流域整体角度强调人类需求的增长，合理控制建设用地增长速度并配置必要的绿色基础设施，以实现环境保护与城市发展双赢目标。
