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东盟五国的碳中和潜力:收入不平等对可再生能源消费的不对称影响的启示。

Carbon neutrality potential of the ASEAN-5 countries: Implications from asymmetric effects of income inequality on renewable energy consumption.

作者信息

Tan Yan, Uprasen Utai

机构信息

Yulin Normal University, 1303 East Jiaoyu Road, Yulin, Guangxi, 537000, China.

Pukyong National University, 45 Yongso-ro, Nam-gu, Busan, 48513, South Korea.

出版信息

J Environ Manage. 2021 Dec 1;299:113635. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113635. Epub 2021 Sep 1.

DOI:10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113635
PMID:34481375
Abstract

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member countries are lagging behind the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to increase the share of renewable energy use and to reduce income inequality. Therefore, this study scrutinises the asymmetric effect of income inequality on renewable energy consumption in order to assess the possibility of the major ASEAN-5 countries adopting the carbon neutrality goal. The study employs a nonlinear panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, from 1990 to 2015. By using four income inequality proxies, the empirical results show, firstly, that an alleviation of income inequality promotes the consumption of renewable energy in the long run, and vice versa. Secondly, the asymmetric effect is found and confirms that the positive shock (worsening of inequality) of income inequality generates a larger impact on the consumption of renewable energy compared to the result from negative shock (improvement of inequality). Lastly, the Hatemi-J asymmetric Granger causality tests reveal bidirectional causality between the positive inequality shock and the consumption of renewable energy. Consequently, in terms of policy implication, there is a strong argument to reduce the degree of income inequality in ASEAN-5 in order to promote the consumption of renewable energy and to increase the feasibility of adoption of carbon neutrality targets in the region.

摘要

东南亚国家联盟(东盟)成员国在提高可再生能源使用比例和减少收入不平等方面落后于联合国可持续发展目标(SDGs)。因此,本研究审视收入不平等对可再生能源消费的不对称影响,以评估东盟五个主要国家实现碳中和目标的可能性。该研究采用了1990年至2015年的非线性面板自回归分布滞后(ARDL)模型。通过使用四个收入不平等代理变量,实证结果首先表明,从长期来看,收入不平等的缓解会促进可再生能源的消费,反之亦然。其次,发现了不对称效应,并证实与负面冲击(不平等改善)的结果相比,收入不平等的正向冲击(不平等加剧)对可再生能源消费产生的影响更大。最后,哈泰米-J不对称格兰杰因果检验揭示了正向不平等冲击与可再生能源消费之间的双向因果关系。因此,在政策含义方面,有充分理由降低东盟五国的收入不平等程度,以促进可再生能源消费,并提高该地区采用碳中和目标的可行性。

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