Department of Business Administration, College of Business Administration, Majmaah University, Al Majmaah, 11952, Saudi Arabia.
College of Business Administration in Yanbu, Department of Management, Taibah University, Medina, Saudi Arabia.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2019 Jun;26(16):16145-16156. doi: 10.1007/s11356-019-04955-z. Epub 2019 Apr 10.
This study applies asymmetric causality to renewable energy (REC), carbon dioxide emissions (CE), and real GDP using non-linear broadcasting between these variables through the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag model (NARDL) to examine the short- and long-run asymmetries in the inconsistency of greenhouse gas emissions among the variables and to unpack the asymmetric causality of selective variables through positive and negative shocks for time series data from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia between 1990 and 2014. The bounds cointegration test shows the existence of long-term dealings among all considered variables in the presence of asymmetry. The non-linear asymmetric causality test shows that negative shocks in carbon dioxide emissions had only positive impacts on real GDP in the long-term but are unobservable in the short-term. Additionally, the short- and the long-term incidences of positive shocks on real GDP are not similar to the negative shock to REC, implying the existence of asymmetric impacts on REC in both short- and long-term forms. Finally, the asymmetric causal relationship from carbon dioxide emissions to REC is neutral in the long-term. Both positive and negative shocks to REC consistently had an adverse effect on CE in the long-term. The presence of asymmetry between economic growth, CE, and REC could be of major substantial for more helpful policymakers and the action plan of sustainable development goals (SDGs) in Saudi Arabia.
本研究应用非对称因果关系,利用变量间的非线性广播通过非线性自回归分布滞后模型(NARDL),对可再生能源(REC)、二氧化碳排放(CE)和实际 GDP 进行分析,以检验变量间温室气体排放不一致的短期和长期非对称性,并通过沙特阿拉伯 1990 年至 2014 年的时间序列数据,通过正、负冲击,对选择变量的非对称因果关系进行拆解。边界协整检验表明,在存在非对称性的情况下,所有考虑变量之间存在长期关系。非线性非对称因果关系检验表明,二氧化碳排放的负冲击在长期内仅对实际 GDP 产生正向影响,但在短期内不可观测。此外,实际 GDP 的短期和长期正冲击与 REC 的负冲击并不相似,这意味着 REC 在短期和长期都存在非对称影响。最后,二氧化碳排放与 REC 之间的长期非对称因果关系是中性的。REC 的正、负冲击对 CE 的长期影响都是不利的。经济增长、CE 和 REC 之间的非对称性可能对沙特阿拉伯的政策制定者和可持续发展目标(SDGs)行动计划具有重要意义。