Stanley Ho Centre for Emerging Infectious Diseases, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong.
Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong.
J Am Med Inform Assoc. 2021 Oct 12;28(11):2385-2392. doi: 10.1093/jamia/ocab175.
OBJECTIVE: Contact tracing of reported infections could enable close contacts to be identified, tested, and quarantined for controlling further spread. This strategy has been well demonstrated in the surveillance and control of COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) epidemics. This study aims to leverage contact tracing data to investigate the degree of spread and the formation of transmission cascades composing of multiple clusters. MATERIALS AND METHODS: An algorithm on mining relationships between clusters for network analysis is proposed with 3 steps: horizontal edge creation, vertical edge consolidation, and graph reduction. The constructed network was then analyzed with information diffusion metrics and exponential-family random graph modeling. With categorization of clusters by exposure setting, the metrics were compared among cascades to identify associations between exposure settings and their network positions within the cascade using Mann-Whitney U test. RESULTS: Experimental results illustrated that transmission cascades containing or seeded by daily activity clusters spread faster while those containing social activity clusters propagated farther. Cascades involving work or study environments consisted of more clusters, which had a higher transmission range and scale. Social activity clusters were more likely to be connected, whereas both residence and healthcare clusters did not preferentially link to clusters belonging to the same exposure setting. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed algorithm could contribute to in-depth epidemiologic investigation of infectious disease transmission to support targeted nonpharmaceutical intervention policies for COVID-19 epidemic control.
目的:通过对报告感染的接触者进行追踪,可以识别、检测和隔离密切接触者,从而控制疫情的进一步传播。这一策略在 COVID-19(2019 年冠状病毒病)疫情的监测和控制中得到了很好的证明。本研究旨在利用接触者追踪数据来调查传播的程度和由多个集群组成的传播级联的形成。
材料与方法:提出了一种用于网络分析的挖掘集群间关系的算法,该算法包括 3 个步骤:水平边创建、垂直边整合和图简化。然后,使用信息扩散度量和指数族随机图模型对构建的网络进行分析。通过对集群的暴露设置进行分类,使用曼-惠特尼 U 检验比较级联之间的度量值,以确定暴露设置与其在级联中的网络位置之间的关联。
结果:实验结果表明,含有或由日常活动集群引发的传播级联传播速度更快,而含有社交活动集群的级联传播范围更广。涉及工作或学习环境的级联包含更多的集群,其传播范围和规模更大。社交活动集群更容易连接,而居住和医疗保健集群并不倾向于与属于同一暴露设置的集群连接。
结论:所提出的算法有助于深入调查传染病的传播情况,从而为 COVID-19 疫情控制提供有针对性的非药物干预政策。
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