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在高免疫人群中缩小 COVID-19 接触者追踪范围。

Downsizing of COVID-19 contact tracing in highly immune populations.

机构信息

Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's (NL), Canada.

Department of Biology, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's (NL), Canada.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2022 Jun 10;17(6):e0268586. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0268586. eCollection 2022.


DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0268586
PMID:35687566
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9187098/
Abstract

Contact tracing is a key component of successful management of COVID-19. Contacts of infected individuals are asked to quarantine, which can significantly slow down (or prevent) community spread. Contact tracing is particularly effective when infections are detected quickly, when contacts are traced with high probability, when the initial number of cases is low, and when social distancing and border restrictions are in place. However, the magnitude of the individual contribution of these factors in reducing epidemic spread and the impact of population immunity (due to either previous infection or vaccination), in determining contact tracing outputs is not fully understood. We present a delayed differential equation model to investigate how the immunity status and the relaxation of social distancing requirements affect contact tracing practices. We investigate how the minimal contact tracing efficiency required to keep an outbreak under control depends on the contact rate and on the proportion of immune individuals. Additionally, we consider how delays in outbreak detection and increased case importation rates affect the number of contacts to be traced daily. We show that in communities that have reached a certain immunity status, a lower contact tracing efficiency is required to avoid a major outbreak, and delayed outbreak detection and relaxation of border restrictions do not lead to a significantly higher risk of overwhelming contact tracing. We find that investing in testing programs, rather than increasing the contact tracing capacity, has a larger impact in determining whether an outbreak will be controllable. This is because early detection activates contact tracing, which will slow, and eventually reverse exponential growth, while the contact tracing capacity is a threshold that will easily become overwhelmed if exponential growth is not curbed. Finally, we evaluate quarantine effectiveness in relation to the immunity status of the population and for different viral variants. We show that quarantine effectiveness decreases with increasing proportion of immune individuals, and increases in the presence of more transmissible variants. These results suggest that a cost-effective approach is to establish different quarantine rules for immune and nonimmune individuals, where rules should depend on viral transmissibility after vaccination or infection. Altogether, our study provides quantitative information for contact tracing downsizing in vaccinated populations or in populations that have already experienced large community outbreaks, to guide COVID-19 exit strategies.

摘要

接触者追踪是成功管理 COVID-19 的关键组成部分。感染个体的接触者被要求隔离,这可以显著减缓(或阻止)社区传播。当感染迅速被发现时,当接触者被高度概率追踪时,当初始病例数较低时,当实施社交距离和边境限制时,接触者追踪特别有效。然而,这些因素在减少疫情传播方面的个体贡献的大小以及人口免疫力(由于先前的感染或接种疫苗)在确定接触者追踪结果方面的影响尚不完全清楚。我们提出了一个时滞微分方程模型,以研究免疫力状况和社交距离要求的放松如何影响接触者追踪实践。我们研究了保持疫情控制所需的最小接触者追踪效率如何取决于接触率和免疫个体的比例。此外,我们还考虑了疫情发现延迟和病例输入率增加如何影响每天需要追踪的接触者数量。我们表明,在已经达到一定免疫力的社区中,需要较低的接触者追踪效率来避免重大疫情爆发,并且疫情发现延迟和边境限制放松不会导致接触者追踪的风险显著增加。我们发现,投资于检测计划而不是增加接触者追踪能力,对确定疫情是否可控的影响更大。这是因为早期检测会激活接触者追踪,这将减缓并最终逆转指数增长,而接触者追踪能力是一个阈值,如果不遏制指数增长,很容易被淹没。最后,我们评估了与人口免疫力相关的隔离有效性以及不同病毒变体。我们表明,隔离效果随着免疫个体比例的增加而降低,并且在存在更具传染性的变体时增加。这些结果表明,一种具有成本效益的方法是为免疫和非免疫个体建立不同的隔离规则,这些规则应取决于接种疫苗或感染后的病毒传染性。总之,我们的研究为接种疫苗的人群或已经经历了大规模社区爆发的人群中的接触者追踪缩小规模提供了定量信息,以指导 COVID-19 退出策略。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b969/9187098/febf0a4663b8/pone.0268586.g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b969/9187098/0c670e7ef1e8/pone.0268586.g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b969/9187098/81b2a5530ce1/pone.0268586.g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b969/9187098/bcab6a7d797b/pone.0268586.g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b969/9187098/febf0a4663b8/pone.0268586.g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b969/9187098/0c670e7ef1e8/pone.0268586.g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b969/9187098/81b2a5530ce1/pone.0268586.g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b969/9187098/bcab6a7d797b/pone.0268586.g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b969/9187098/febf0a4663b8/pone.0268586.g004.jpg

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本文引用的文献

[1]
Vaccination with BNT162b2 reduces transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to household contacts in Israel.

Science. 2022-3-11

[2]
Cost-Effectiveness of Public Health Measures to Control COVID-19 in China: A Microsimulation Modeling Study.

Front Public Health. 2021

[3]
Contact tracing is an imperfect tool for controlling COVID-19 transmission and relies on population adherence.

Nat Commun. 2021-9-13

[4]
A seasonal model to assess intervention strategies for preventing periodic recurrence of Lassa fever.

Heliyon. 2021-8-11

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Effectiveness of Covid-19 Vaccines against the B.1.617.2 (Delta) Variant.

N Engl J Med. 2021-8-12

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PLoS Comput Biol. 2021-6

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JAMA Netw Open. 2021-6-1

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Vaccines (Basel). 2021-4-14

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Sustainable border control policy in the COVID-19 pandemic: A math modeling study.

Travel Med Infect Dis. 2021

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Infectivity, susceptibility, and risk factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 transmission under intensive contact tracing in Hunan, China.

Nat Commun. 2021-3-9

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