National Oceanography Centre, European Way, Southampton, UK.
School of Ocean and Earth Sciences, University of Southampton, Waterfront Campus, European Way, Southampton, UK.
Nat Commun. 2021 Sep 10;12(1):5372. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-25699-w.
The future response of marine ecosystem diversity to continued anthropogenic forcing is poorly constrained. Phytoplankton are a diverse set of organisms that form the base of the marine ecosystem. Currently, ocean biogeochemistry and ecosystem models used for climate change projections typically include only 2-3 phytoplankton types and are, therefore, too simple to adequately assess the potential for changes in plankton community structure. Here, we analyse a complex ecosystem model with 35 phytoplankton types to evaluate the changes in phytoplankton community composition, turnover and size structure over the 21st century. We find that the rate of turnover in the phytoplankton community becomes faster during this century, that is, the community structure becomes increasingly unstable in response to climate change. Combined with alterations to phytoplankton diversity, our results imply a loss of ecological resilience with likely knock-on effects on the productivity and functioning of the marine environment.
海洋生态系统多样性对持续人为压力的未来响应受到严重限制。浮游植物是一组多样化的生物体，它们构成了海洋生态系统的基础。目前，用于气候变化预测的海洋生物地球化学和生态系统模型通常仅包含 2-3 种浮游植物类型，因此过于简单，无法充分评估浮游植物群落结构变化的潜力。在这里，我们分析了一个具有 35 种浮游植物类型的复杂生态系统模型，以评估浮游植物群落组成、周转率和大小结构在 21 世纪的变化。我们发现，浮游植物群落的周转率在本世纪变得更快，也就是说，群落结构对气候变化的反应变得越来越不稳定。结合浮游植物多样性的改变，我们的结果意味着生态弹性的丧失，可能对海洋环境的生产力和功能产生连锁反应。
