Scales Kylie L, Bolin Jessica A, Dunn Daniel C, Hazen Elliott L, Hannah Lee, Schoeman David S
Ocean Futures Research Cluster, School of Science, Technology & Engineering, University of the Sunshine Coast, Maroochydore, Australia.
Department of Wildlife, Fish and Conservation Biology, University of California, Davis, CA, USA; Coastal and Marine Sciences Institute, University of California, Davis, CA, USA.
Trends Ecol Evol. 2025 May;40(5):502-515. doi: 10.1016/j.tree.2025.02.010. Epub 2025 Mar 21.
Anthropogenic climate change is driving rapid changes in marine ecosystems across the global ocean. The spatiotemporal footprints of other anthropogenic threats, such as infrastructure development, shipping, and fisheries, will also inevitably shift under climate change, but we find that these shifts are not yet accounted for in most projections of climate futures in marine systems. We summarise what is known about threat-shifting in response to climate change, and identify sources of predictability that have implications for ecological forecasting. We recommend that, where possible, the dynamics of anthropogenic threats are accounted for in nowcasts, forecasts, and projections designed for spatial management and conservation planning, and highlight key themes for future research into threat dynamics in a changing ocean.
人为气候变化正在推动全球海洋生态系统的快速变化。其他人为威胁，如基础设施建设、航运和渔业，其时空足迹在气候变化下也将不可避免地发生转移，但我们发现，在大多数海洋系统气候未来预测中，这些转移尚未得到考虑。我们总结了已知的应对气候变化的威胁转移情况，并确定了对生态预测有影响的可预测性来源。我们建议，在可能的情况下，在为空间管理和保护规划设计的临近预报、预报和预测中考虑人为威胁的动态，并突出了未来关于变化海洋中威胁动态研究的关键主题。
