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基于分层贝叶斯随机截距方法的山区道路卡车配置评估商用卡车司机伤害严重程度。

Assessment of commercial truck driver injury severity based on truck configuration along a mountainous roadway using hierarchical Bayesian random intercept approach.

机构信息

Wyoming Technology Transfer Center, University of Wyoming, 1000 E. University Ave., Rm 3029, Laramie, WY 82071, United States.

Department of Civil and Architectural Engineering, University of Wyoming, 1000 E. University Ave., EERB 407B, Laramie, WY 82071, United States.

出版信息

Accid Anal Prev. 2021 Nov;162:106392. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2021.106392. Epub 2021 Sep 9.

Abstract

For the last decade, disaggregate modeling approach has been frequently practiced to analyze truck-involved crash injury severity. This included truck-involved crashes based on single and multi-vehicles, rural and urban locations, time of day variations, roadway classification, lighting, and weather conditions. However, analyzing commercial truck driver injury severity based on truck configuration is still missing. This paper aims to fill this knowledge gap by undertaking an extensive assessment of truck driver injury severity in truck-involved crashes based on various truck configurations (i.e. single-unit truck with two or more axles, single-unit truck pulling a trailer, semi-trailer/tractor, and double trailer/tractor) using ten years (2007-2016) of Wyoming crash data through hierarchical Bayesian random intercept approach. The log-likelihood ratio tests were conducted to justify that separate models by various truck configurations are warranted. The results obtained from the individual models demonstrate considerable differences among the four truck configuration models. The age, gender, and residency of the truck driver, multi-vehicles involvement, license restriction, runoff road, work zones, presence of junctions, and median type were found to have significantly different impacts on the driver injury severity. These differences in both the combination and the magnitude of the impact of variables justified the importance of examining truck driver injury severity for different truck configuration types. With the incorporation of the random intercept in the modeling procedure, the analysis found a strong presence (24%-42%) of intra-crash correlation (effects of the common crash-specific unobserved factors) in driver injury severity within the same crash. Finally, based on the findings of this study, several potential countermeasures are suggested.

摘要

在过去的十年中,人们经常采用分解建模方法来分析涉及卡车的碰撞事故伤害严重程度。这包括基于单车和多车、农村和城市地区、一天中的时间变化、道路分类、照明和天气条件的涉及卡车的碰撞事故。然而,基于卡车配置分析商业卡车司机的伤害严重程度仍然是一个空白。本文旨在通过使用怀俄明州十年(2007-2016 年)的碰撞数据,采用层次贝叶斯随机截距方法,对涉及卡车的碰撞事故中基于各种卡车配置(即具有两个或更多车轴的单辆卡车、牵引挂车的单辆卡车、半挂车/牵引车和双挂车/牵引车)的卡车司机伤害严重程度进行广泛评估,填补这一知识空白。通过对数似然比检验,证明了各种卡车配置的单独模型是合理的。从个体模型中获得的结果表明,四种卡车配置模型之间存在显著差异。卡车司机的年龄、性别和居住地、多车参与、驾照限制、驶出道路、工作区、交叉口存在情况和中央分隔带类型被发现对司机伤害严重程度有显著不同的影响。这些变量的组合和影响程度的差异证明了检查不同卡车配置类型的卡车司机伤害严重程度的重要性。通过在建模过程中纳入随机截距,分析发现了在同一碰撞中,司机伤害严重程度存在很强的(24%-42%)内部相关性(共同碰撞特定未观察到因素的影响)。最后,根据本研究的结果,提出了几种潜在的对策。

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