Nåsell I
Department of Mathematics, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden.
IMA J Math Appl Med Biol. 1986;3(3):211-27. doi: 10.1093/imammb/3.3.211.
The task of proving or disproving that there is superinfection of human beings in malaria has been unresolved since the concept of superinfection was introduced by Macdonald (1950). We present a method of analysis the results of which indicate that there is superinfection in children up to the age of about five years, but not in older human hosts. We use maximum-likelihood estimation in an extension of ideas introduced by Bekessy, Molineaux, & Storey (1976). The estimation is based on a model for the infection of human hosts with variable degree of superinfection. This model contains a parameter S that equals the maximum number of infections in the host. In the absence of superinfection, S = 1, while S = infinity in the unlimited superinfection assumed by Macdonald. The estimation of S in a number of age bands allows us to identify the age bands where superinfection occurs.
自麦克唐纳（1950年）提出重叠感染概念以来，证明或反驳人类疟疾存在重叠感染这一任务一直悬而未决。我们提出一种分析方法，其结果表明，五岁左右及以下儿童存在重叠感染，但年龄较大的人类宿主不存在。我们在贝凯西、莫利纳克斯和斯托里（1976年）提出的思想扩展中使用最大似然估计。该估计基于人类宿主感染且重叠感染程度可变的模型。此模型包含一个参数S，其等于宿主中的最大感染数。在不存在重叠感染的情况下，S = 1，而在麦克唐纳假设的无限重叠感染中，S = ∞。在多个年龄组中对S进行估计使我们能够确定发生重叠感染的年龄组。
