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大气污染协同防控政策对空气污染物的影响——基于中国政策文本的定量分析。

Effects of the joint prevention and control of atmospheric pollution policy on air pollutants-A quantitative analysis of Chinese policy texts.

机构信息

College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, Tianjin, 300072, China.

College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, Tianjin, 300072, China.

出版信息

J Environ Manage. 2021 Dec 15;300:113721. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113721. Epub 2021 Sep 17.

Abstract

Joint prevention and control of atmospheric pollution (JPCAP) policies play a vital role in alleviating regional pollution. Based on Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) model, we construct two policy strength measures of effectiveness and number, and investigate the effects of policy strength on air pollutant emissions for four types of JPCAP policies. The results show that the effects of economic incentive policy tools and supporting policy tools on emission reduction deviate significantly from policy preferences. Economic incentive policy tools are the most effective in promoting emission reductions in SO, NOx and dust, but their effectiveness are the lowest in reality. Supporting policy tools, with the highest strength, have little effect on emission reduction. Command-control policies and persuasion policies are both relatively high in quantity and effectiveness. In addition, policy strength plays a more important role in reducing air pollutants in key regions than in non-key regions. JPCAP policies have gradually changed from a single policy tool to multiple policy tools, and the government shifted its attention to improving the legal effectiveness of policies after 2015. Finally, we propose some policy implications to optimize JPCAP policies and address regional air pollution problem.

摘要

大气污染联防联控政策在缓解区域污染方面发挥着重要作用。基于潜在狄利克雷分配(LDA)模型,我们构建了有效性和数量两个政策强度度量指标,并考察了四种大气污染联防联控政策对大气污染物排放的影响。结果表明,经济激励政策工具和支持性政策工具在减排效果上与政策偏好存在显著偏差。经济激励政策工具在促进 SO、NOx 和粉尘减排方面最为有效,但在实际应用中的效果最低。支持性政策工具的强度最高,但对减排的影响很小。命令-控制政策和劝导政策在数量和效果上都相对较高。此外,政策强度在重点区域降低大气污染物方面比非重点区域更为重要。大气污染联防联控政策已逐渐从单一政策工具向多种政策工具转变,政府在 2015 年后也将注意力转向提高政策的法律效力。最后,我们提出了一些政策建议,以优化大气污染联防联控政策,解决区域性大气污染问题。

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