Papas Eric B
School of Optometry & Vision Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Ophthalmic Physiol Opt. 2021 Nov;41(6):1254-1266. doi: 10.1111/opo.12888. Epub 2021 Sep 21.
To provide estimates for the prevalence of dry eye disease globally and in sub-groups defined by: diagnostic criterion, sex, geographic location and age, using a Bayesian approach.
Modelling prevalence as a Beta distribution, estimates were inferred from Bayesian posterior distributions obtained by combing an uninformed prior with likelihood functions generated from all relevant studies reporting dry eye prevalence between 1997 and 2021.
Global prevalence of dry eye disease was estimated at 11.59% (standard deviation (SD) = 0.04). For symptomatic disease, the estimate was 9.12% (SD = 0.04), with women 9.5% (SD = 0.05) and men 6.8% (SD = 0.06); prevalence was lowest in North America, 4.6% (SD = 0.03) and highest in Africa, 47.9% (SD = 1.8). For signs, prevalence was 35.2% (SD = 0.3), with woman 34.7% (SD = 0.7) and men 37.6% (SD = 0.7); North America showed the lowest regional prevalence, 3.5%, (SD = 0.4) with Eastern Asia the highest, 42.8% (SD = 0.4). Using TFOS DEWS II diagnostic criteria resulted in a global prevalence of 29.5% (SD = 0.8), with women 28.1% (SD = 1.2) and men 24.9% (SD = 1.4). Prevalence was lowest during the fifth decade, increasing approximately linearly with age thereafter. Estimates for other categories are given in accompanying tables.
A simple, flexible, yet powerful means of combining data from multiple sources to yield prevalence estimates across a range of circumstances is described, that is compatible with published guidelines for conducting meta-analysis. Estimates can be readily updated as new information emerges, or according to need. Understanding the specific characteristics of studies chosen for inclusion is critical to the validity of the outcome. Although dry eye disease is evidently common, affecting about one in 11 people world-wide, data are sparse for the young and all geographical locations except Eastern Asia.
采用贝叶斯方法，估计全球及按诊断标准、性别、地理位置和年龄定义的亚组中干眼症的患病率。
将患病率建模为贝塔分布，通过将无信息先验与1997年至2021年期间所有报告干眼症患病率的相关研究生成的似然函数相结合得到的贝叶斯后验分布推断估计值。
干眼症的全球患病率估计为11.59%（标准差（SD）=0.04）。有症状疾病的估计患病率为9.12%（SD=0.04），女性为9.5%（SD=0.05），男性为6.8%（SD=0.06）；患病率在北美洲最低，为4.6%（SD=0.03），在非洲最高，为47.9%（SD=1.8）。有体征的患病率为35.2%（SD=0.3），女性为34.7%（SD=0.7），男性为37.6%（SD=0.7）；北美洲的区域患病率最低，为3.5%（SD=0.4），东亚最高，为42.8%（SD=0.4）。采用TFOS DEWS II诊断标准得出的全球患病率为29.5%（SD=0.8），女性为28.1%（SD=1.2），男性为24.9%（SD=1.4）。患病率在五十多岁时最低，此后随年龄大致呈线性增加。其他类别的估计值列于附表中。
描述了一种简单、灵活但强大的方法，可将来自多个来源的数据结合起来，以得出一系列情况下的患病率估计值，该方法与已发表的荟萃分析指南兼容。估计值可根据新出现的信息或需要随时更新。了解纳入研究的具体特征对于结果的有效性至关重要。尽管干眼症显然很常见，全球约每11人中就有1人受影响，但除东亚外，针对年轻人和所有地理位置的数据都很稀少。
