Liu Xiaoqiang, He Shaoya, Yao Xi, Hu Tianyang
Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Anyue County People's Hospital, Sichuan, People's Republic of China.
Department of Gastroenterology, Anyue County People's Hospital, Sichuan, People's Republic of China.
Int J Gen Med. 2021 Sep 14;14:5581-5591. doi: 10.2147/IJGM.S331623. eCollection 2021.
The aim of the current study was to construct prognostic nomograms for individual risk prediction in elderly patients with osteosarcoma.
Data for 816 elderly patients (≥40 years old) with osteosarcoma between 2004 and 2016 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were randomly assigned to training (N=573) and internal validation (N=243) sets. The essential clinical predictors were identified based on least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) Cox regression. Nomograms were constructed to predict the 1-, 3-, and 5-year cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS).
Our LASSO regression analyses of the training set yielded five clinicopathological features (age, chemotherapy, surgery, AJCC stage, and summary stage) in the training cohort for the prognosis of elderly patients with osteosarcoma, while grade was only associated with OS and M stage was only associated with CSS. Construction of nomograms based on these predictors was performed to evaluate the prognosis of elderly patients with osteosarcoma. The C-index, calibration and decision curve analysis also showed the satisfactory performance of these nomograms for prognosis prediction.
The constructed nomograms are helpful tools for exactly predicting the prognosis of elderly patients with osteosarcoma, which could enable patients to be more accurately managed in clinical practice.
本研究的目的是构建用于预测老年骨肉瘤患者个体风险的预后列线图。
将2004年至2016年期间来自监测、流行病学和最终结果（SEER）数据库的816例老年（≥40岁）骨肉瘤患者的数据随机分配到训练集（N = 573）和内部验证集（N = 243）。基于最小绝对收缩和选择算子（Lasso）Cox回归确定基本临床预测因素。构建列线图以预测1年、3年和5年癌症特异性生存率（CSS）和总生存率（OS）。
我们对训练集进行的LASSO回归分析得出了老年骨肉瘤患者预后的训练队列中的五个临床病理特征（年龄、化疗、手术、美国癌症联合委员会（AJCC）分期和总结分期），而分级仅与OS相关，M分期仅与CSS相关。基于这些预测因素构建列线图以评估老年骨肉瘤患者的预后。C指数、校准和决策曲线分析也显示了这些列线图在预后预测方面的良好性能。
构建的列线图是准确预测老年骨肉瘤患者预后的有用工具，可使患者在临床实践中得到更准确的管理。
