Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University, Harbin, China.
Technol Cancer Res Treat. 2020 Jan-Dec;19:1533033820947718. doi: 10.1177/1533033820947718.
Osteosarcoma is one of the most common malignant bone tumors, with a high incidence in adolescence. The objective of this study was to construct prognostic nomograms for predicting the prognosis of juvenile osteosarcoma.
Patients with osteosarcoma diagnosed between 2004 and 2015 were identified in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The essential clinical predictors were identified with univariate and multivariate Cox analysis. Nomograms were constructed to predict the 3- and 5-year cancer- specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS). Concordance index (C-index) and calibration plots were performed to validate the predictive performance of nomograms.
We enrolled 736 adolescents with osteosarcoma from the SEER database, with 516 samples grouped into a training cohort and 220 samples grouped into a validation cohort. In multivariate analysis of the training cohort, predictors including tumor size, surgery treatment and AJCC stage were found to be associated with OS and CSS, while age was only associated with CSS. Construction of nomograms based on these predictors was performed to evaluate the prognosis of adolescents with osteosarcoma. The C-index and calibration curves also showed the satisfactory performance of these nomograms for prognosis prediction.
The developed nomograms are useful tools for precisely predicting the prognosis of adolescents with osteosarcoma, which could enable patients to be more accurately managed in clinical practice.
骨肉瘤是最常见的恶性骨肿瘤之一，在青少年中发病率较高。本研究旨在构建用于预测青少年骨肉瘤预后的列线图。
从监测、流行病学和最终结果（SEER）数据库中确定了 2004 年至 2015 年间诊断为骨肉瘤的患者。采用单因素和多因素 Cox 分析确定了基本的临床预测因素。构建列线图以预测 3 年和 5 年癌症特异性生存率（CSS）和总生存率（OS）。通过一致性指数（C-index）和校准图来验证列线图的预测性能。
我们从 SEER 数据库中纳入了 736 名青少年骨肉瘤患者，其中 516 例样本分为训练队列，220 例样本分为验证队列。在训练队列的多因素分析中，发现肿瘤大小、手术治疗和 AJCC 分期等预测因素与 OS 和 CSS 相关，而年龄仅与 CSS 相关。基于这些预测因素构建列线图，以评估青少年骨肉瘤患者的预后。C-index 和校准曲线也表明这些列线图在预测预后方面具有良好的性能。
所开发的列线图是准确预测青少年骨肉瘤患者预后的有用工具，可使患者在临床实践中得到更准确的管理。
