Predictors of Total Mortality and Serious Arrhythmic Events in Non-Ischemic Heart Failure Patients: The Role of Galectin-3.

BACKGROUND

Risk stratification remains clinically challenging in patients with heart failure (HF) of non-ischemic etiology. Galectin-3 is a serum marker of fibrosis that might help in prognostication.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the role of galectin-3 as a predictor of major arrhythmic events and overall mortality.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective cohort study that enrolled 148 non-ischemic HF patients. All patients underwent a comprehensive baseline clinical and laboratory assessment, including levels of serum galectin-3. The primary outcome was the occurrence of arrhythmic syncope, appropriate implantable cardioverter defibrillator therapy, sustained ventricular tachycardia, or sudden cardiac death. The secondary outcome was all-cause death. For all statistical tests, a two-tailed p-value<0.05 was considered significant.

RESULTS

In a median follow-up of 941 days, the primary and secondary outcomes occurred in 26 (17.5%) and 30 (20%) patients, respectively. Serum galectin-3>22.5 ng/mL (highest quartile) did not predict serious arrhythmic events (HR: 1.98, p=0.152). Independent predictors of the primary outcome were left ventricular end-diastolic diameter (LVEDD)>73mm (HR: 3.70, p=0.001), exercise periodic breathing (EPB) on cardiopulmonary exercise testing (HR: 2.67, p=0.01), and non-sustained ventricular tachycardia (NSVT)>8 beats on Holter monitoring (HR: 3.47, p=0.027). Predictors of all-cause death were galectin-3>22.5 ng/mL (HR: 3.69, p=0.001), LVEDD>73mm (HR: 3.35, p=0.003), EPB (HR: 3.06, p=0.006), and NSVT>8 beats (HR: 3.95, p=0.007). The absence of all risk predictors was associated with a 91.1% negative predictive value for the primary outcome and 96.6% for total mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

In non-ischemic HF patients, elevated galectin-3 levels did not predict major arrhythmic events but were associated with total mortality. Absence of risk predictors revealed a prevalent subgroup of HF patients with an excellent prognosis.