Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
Navarino Environmental Observatory, 24001, Messinia, Greece.
Ambio. 2022 Apr;51(4):943-954. doi: 10.1007/s13280-021-01623-w. Epub 2021 Sep 24.
Food security is a global concern affecting even highly developed countries. Ongoing globalisation of food systems, characterised by trading interdependencies, means that agricultural production can be disrupted by climate change, affecting food availability. This study investigated Sweden's food security by identifying major food import categories and associated trade partners (using the World Integrated Trade System database) and vulnerability to frictions in trade deriving from climate change. Vulnerability was assessed through three indicators: exposure based on diversity of sources, dominance and direct trade from supplying countries; sensitivity, assessed using the Climate Risk Index, and adaptive capacity, assessed using the Fragile State Index. The results revealed that Sweden's grain imports may be most vulnerable, and animal products least vulnerable, to climate change. Management strategies based on this preliminary assessment can be developed by integrating climate vulnerability deriving from food trading into the 'Gravity' model, to improve prediction of trade flows.
食品安全是一个全球性的问题，即使是高度发达的国家也会受到影响。食品系统的全球化进程不断推进，其特点是贸易相互依存，这意味着气候变化可能会破坏农业生产，从而影响粮食供应。本研究通过确定主要的粮食进口类别和相关贸易伙伴（使用世界综合贸易系统数据库）以及对贸易摩擦的脆弱性（源于气候变化），来研究瑞典的粮食安全问题。通过三个指标评估脆弱性：基于来源多样性的暴露度、主导地位和来自供应国的直接贸易；使用气候风险指数评估敏感性，以及使用脆弱国家指数评估适应能力。结果表明，瑞典的谷物进口可能最容易受到气候变化的影响，而动物产品则最不容易受到影响。通过将源自粮食贸易的气候脆弱性纳入“引力”模型，可以制定基于此初步评估的管理策略，以提高对贸易流量的预测能力。
