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量化新冠疫情对美国航空公司股价的影响。

Quantifying the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on US airline stock prices.

作者信息

Atems Bebonchu, Yimga Jules

机构信息

David D. Reh School of Business, Clarkson University, 8 Clarkson Ave, Potsdam, NY, 13699, USA.

School of Business, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, 3700 Willow Creek Road, Prescott, AZ, 86301, USA.

出版信息

J Air Transp Manag. 2021 Oct;97:102141. doi: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2021.102141. Epub 2021 Sep 17.

DOI:10.1016/j.jairtraman.2021.102141
PMID:34566280
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8454271/
Abstract

This paper uses data at the trading day frequency and the method of local projections to quantify the dynamic responses of U.S. airline stock prices to a COVID-19 shock. We show that airline stock prices decline immediately by 0.1 percentage point in response to a 1% COVID-19 shock. In addition, the effect of the shock persists beyond the day on which it occurs, with most airline stock prices falling by as much as 0.6 percentage points after fifteen days. This negative response of airline stock prices to a COVID-19 shock is not explained by a COVID-19-induced increase in airlines' variable costs, but rather by a COVID-19-induced decrease in air travel, which, in turn decreases revenues, profitability, and stock prices of U.S. airlines.

摘要

本文使用交易日频率的数据和局部投影方法来量化美国航空股票价格对新冠疫情冲击的动态反应。我们发现，航空股票价格对1%的新冠疫情冲击会立即下跌0.1个百分点。此外，冲击的影响在冲击发生日之后仍会持续，大多数航空股票价格在15天后会下跌多达0.6个百分点。航空股票价格对新冠疫情冲击的这种负面反应并非由新冠疫情导致的航空公司可变成本增加所解释，而是由新冠疫情导致的航空旅行减少所解释，而这反过来又降低了美国航空公司的收入、盈利能力和股票价格。

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