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关于新冠疫情爆发及疫苗研发对全球运输业影响的对比证据。

Comparative evidence on the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and vaccine discovery on the global transportation industry.

作者信息

Maneenop Sakkakom, Kotcharin Suntichai

机构信息

Department of Finance, Thammasat Business School, Thammasat University Bangkok, Thailand.

Department of International Business, Logistics and Transport, Thammasat Business School, Thammasat University, Bangkok, Thailand.

出版信息

Transp Res Interdiscip Perspect. 2023 Jan;17:100741. doi: 10.1016/j.trip.2022.100741. Epub 2023 Jan 2.

Abstract

This research investigated the daily abnormal stock returns of 727 listed companies from 63 countries. We tested the impact of two major COVID-19 related events-(1) the declaration by the World Health Organisation of the global pandemic and (2) the vaccine discovery announcement by Pfizer/BioNTech-on transportation stock price reactions. We found that the pandemic declaration event negatively affected transportation stocks, whereas the vaccine announcement had a positive effect. Passenger markets were more affected than freight markets. Airlines stocks were most struck during the pandemic, whereas railroad companies were unaffected. However, airlines were the best performers following the vaccine discovery event. During the pandemic incident, European transportation firms were hit to a large extent; however, they also rebounded well during the vaccine event. Transportation firms in emerging markets were hit more than those in developed markets; however, both recovered to the same degree during the vaccine event. Transportation firms from countries with higher exposure to China were affected less than those with lower exposure during both events. Our implications are relevant to how investors make investment decisions surrounding market uncertainty. Moreover, corporate managers can refer to the findings when they formulate their firm's financial policies and operations to respond to stock market reactions in the wake of the pandemic. Our results can also help policymakers evaluate and deploy effective policies to boost investor confidence and keep transportation firms viable during a crisis. Overall, the findings can be used for future policy formulation in the transportation industry.

摘要

本研究调查了来自63个国家的727家上市公司的每日异常股票回报。我们测试了与新冠疫情相关的两个重大事件——(1)世界卫生组织宣布全球大流行,以及(2)辉瑞/生物科技公司宣布发现疫苗——对运输类股票价格反应的影响。我们发现,宣布大流行这一事件对运输类股票产生了负面影响,而宣布发现疫苗则产生了积极影响。客运市场比货运市场受到的影响更大。在大流行期间,航空公司股票受冲击最大,而铁路公司则未受影响。然而,在发现疫苗事件之后,航空公司表现最佳。在大流行事件期间,欧洲运输公司受到了很大程度的冲击;不过,在疫苗事件期间它们也反弹良好。新兴市场的运输公司比发达市场的运输公司受到的冲击更大;然而,在疫苗事件期间两者都恢复到了相同程度。在这两个事件中,与中国接触程度较高国家的运输公司受到的影响小于接触程度较低国家的运输公司。我们的研究结果与投资者如何围绕市场不确定性做出投资决策相关。此外,企业管理者在制定公司财务政策和运营策略以应对疫情后股市反应时,可以参考这些研究结果。我们的结果还可以帮助政策制定者评估和部署有效政策,以增强投资者信心,并在危机期间维持运输公司的生存能力。总体而言,这些研究结果可用于未来运输行业的政策制定。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/54f2/9805893/6f766efbfcde/gr1_lrg.jpg

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