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基于断点检验的原油期货市场与中美股指期货市场之间的关系

The Relationship between Crude Oil Futures Market and Chinese/US Stock Index Futures Market Based on Breakpoint Test.

作者信息

Lu Xunfa, Liu Kai, Lai Kin Keung, Cui Hairong

机构信息

School of Management Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China.

Center for Economics, Finance and Management Studies, Hunan University, Changsha 410006, China.

出版信息

Entropy (Basel). 2021 Sep 6;23(9):1172. doi: 10.3390/e23091172.

DOI:10.3390/e23091172
PMID:34573797
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8465217/
Abstract

Combined with the B-P (breakpoint) test and VAR-DCC-GARCH model, the relationship between WTI crude oil futures and S&P 500 index futures or CSI 300 index futures was investigated and compared. The results show that breakpoints exist in the relationship in the mean between WTI crude oil futures market and Chinese stock index futures market or US stock index futures market. The relationship in mean between WTI crude oil futures prices and S&P 500 stock index futures, or CSI 300 stock index futures is weakening. Meanwhile, there is a decreasing dynamic conditional correlation between the WTI crude oil futures market and Chinese stock index futures market or US stock index futures market after the breakpoint in the price series. The Chinese stock index futures are less affected by short-term fluctuations in crude oil futures returns than US stock index futures.

摘要

结合B-P(断点)检验和VAR-DCC-GARCH模型,研究并比较了WTI原油期货与标准普尔500指数期货或沪深300指数期货之间的关系。结果表明,WTI原油期货市场与中国股指期货市场或美国股指期货市场之间的均值关系存在断点。WTI原油期货价格与标准普尔500股票指数期货或沪深300股票指数期货之间的均值关系正在减弱。同时,价格序列出现断点后,WTI原油期货市场与中国股指期货市场或美国股指期货市场之间的动态条件相关性在降低。与美国股指期货相比,中国股指期货受原油期货收益短期波动的影响较小。

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本文引用的文献

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