Matsuoka Hiroaki, Nanmo Hisayoshi, Nojiri Shuko, Nagao Masashi, Nishizaki Yuji
Clinical Translational Science, Juntendo University Graduate School of Medicine, 2-1-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-Ku, Tokyo, 113-8421, Japan; Medical Affairs, Pfizer Japan, 3-22-7 Yoyogi, Shibuya-ku, Tokyo, 151-8589, Japan.
Department of Mathematical Science, Yokohama National University, 79-1 Tokiwadai, Hodogaya-Ku, Yokohama, 240-8501, Japan.
J Orthop Sci. 2023 Jan;28(1):161-166. doi: 10.1016/j.jos.2021.09.002. Epub 2021 Sep 27.
The aging population is a risk factor for an increase in osteoarthritis, leading to a potential increase in the number of arthroplasties worldwide. This study aimed to calculate the projected numbers of knee and hip arthroplasties in Japan until 2030 using national health insurance claim data.
Data on the numbers of knee and hip arthroplasties performed in Japan between 2014 and 2018 were obtained from the National Database of Health Insurance Claims and Specific Health Checkups of Open Data Japan. Demographic data were obtained from the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research. Collected data were categorized into three age subgroups (40-64, 65-74, and ≥75 years) for each sex. Projections were based on the Poisson regression model.
The number of knee arthroplasties in Japan in 2030 was projected to be 4052 for men aged 40-64 years, 6942 for men aged 65-74 years, 14,986 for men aged ≥75 years, 7092 for women aged 40-64 years, 22,957 for women aged 65-74 years, and 58,340 for women aged ≥75 years. The number of hip arthroplasties in Japan in 2030 was predicted to be 8936 for men aged 40-64 years, 9005 for men aged 65-74 years, 5972 for men aged ≥75 years, 27,327 for women aged 40-64 years, 36,416 for women aged 65-74 years, and 37,011 for women aged ≥75 years.
The numbers of knee and hip arthroplasties are expected to continue to increase over the next 10 years in Japan in most age groups. These findings are useful for future healthcare resource planning to meet the demand for knee and hip arthroplasties.
人口老龄化是骨关节炎发病率上升的一个风险因素，这可能导致全球关节置换手术数量的潜在增加。本研究旨在利用国民健康保险理赔数据计算出到2030年日本膝关节和髋关节置换手术的预计数量。
2014年至2018年期间日本膝关节和髋关节置换手术数量的数据来自日本公开数据的国民健康保险理赔和特定健康检查国家数据库。人口数据来自国立社会保障和人口问题研究所。收集到的数据按性别分为三个年龄亚组（40 - 64岁、65 - 74岁和≥75岁）。预测基于泊松回归模型。
预计到2030年，日本40 - 64岁男性的膝关节置换手术数量为4052例，65 - 74岁男性为6942例，≥75岁男性为14986例，40 - 64岁女性为7092例，65 - 74岁女性为22957例，≥75岁女性为58340例。预计到2030年，日本40 - 64岁男性的髋关节置换手术数量为8936例，65 - 74岁男性为9005例，≥75岁男性为5972例，40 - 64岁女性为27327例，65 - 74岁女性为36416例，≥75岁女性为37011例。
在日本，大多数年龄组的膝关节和髋关节置换手术数量预计在未来10年将继续增加。这些发现有助于未来的医疗资源规划，以满足膝关节和髋关节置换手术的需求。
