Kobayashi Takaomi, Fujii Masanori, Morimoto Tadatsugu
Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Faculty of Medicine, Saga University, 5-1-1 Nabeshima, Saga, 849-8501, Japan.
Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Saga University, 5-1-1 Nabeshima, Saga, 849-8501, Japan.
Osteoporos Int. 2025 Aug 15. doi: 10.1007/s00198-025-07655-2.
This study aimed to calculate short- to mid-term projections of the number of bipolar hemiarthroplasty (BHA) and open reduction and internal fixation (ORIF) procedures for femoral fractures in Japan from 2025.
We conducted a nationwide population-based modeling study to predict the number of BHA and ORIF procedures to be performed for femoral fractures in Japan between 2025 and 2035. BHA and ORIF data between 2018 and 2022 were obtained from the National Database of Health Insurance Claims and Specific Health Checkups of Japan Open Data. Population data were sourced from the Population Census and the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research. Poisson regression models were fitted by sex and 10-year age strata (aged ≥ 40 years), with procedure year as an explanatory variable and population size as an offset.
The projected numbers of BHA in women and men are 61,799 (prediction interval [PI], 60,154-63,507) and 20,715 (PI, 19,697-21,802) in 2025, 72,545 (PI, 68,921-76,414) and 26,179 (PI, 23,770-28,894) in 2030, and 82,713 (PI, 76,127-88,804) and 31,743 (PI, 27,452-36,845) in 2035, respectively. The projected numbers of ORIF in women and men are 95,525 (PI, 93,556-97,554) and 25,545 (PI, 24,411-26,741) in 2025, 94,731 (PI, 91,031-98,653) and 26,050 (PI, 23,847-28,492) in 2030, and 91,422 (PI, 86,149-97,170) and 26,046 (PI, 22,770-29,868) in 2035, respectively.
The projected increases in BHA and generally stable ORIF numbers with fluctuations through 2035, with more reliable short-term estimates, will inform timely healthcare planning.
This modeling study projected the number of femoral fracture surgeries in Japan between 2025 and 2035. The number of bipolar hemiarthroplasty procedures in Japan is projected to increase over the next decade. In contrast, the number of open reduction and internal fixation procedures is projected to remain stable, with fluctuations.
本研究旨在计算2025年起日本股骨骨折的双极半髋关节置换术（BHA）和切开复位内固定术（ORIF）手术数量的短期至中期预测值。
我们开展了一项基于全国人口的建模研究，以预测2025年至2035年日本股骨骨折的BHA和ORIF手术数量。2018年至2022年的BHA和ORIF数据来自日本医保理赔与特定健康检查国家数据库的开放数据。人口数据来自人口普查和国立社会保障与人口问题研究所。采用泊松回归模型，按性别和10岁年龄层（年龄≥40岁）进行拟合，将手术年份作为解释变量，人口规模作为偏移量。
2025年女性和男性的BHA预测数量分别为61,799例（预测区间[PI]，60,154 - 63,507例）和20,715例（PI，19,697 - 21,802例）；2030年分别为72,545例（PI，68,921 - 76,414例）和26,179例（PI，23,770 - 28,894例）；2035年分别为82,713例（PI，76,127 - 88,804例）和31,743例（PI，27,452 - 36,845例）。2025年女性和男性的ORIF预测数量分别为95,525例（PI，93,556 - 97,554例）和25,545例（PI，24,411 - 26,741例）；2030年分别为94,731例（PI，91,031 - 98,653例）和26,050例（PI，23,847 - 28,492例）；2035年分别为91,422例（PI，86,149 - 97,170例）和26,046例（PI，22,770 - 29,868例）。
预计到2035年，BHA数量将增加，ORIF数量总体稳定但有波动，短期估计更为可靠，这将为及时的医疗规划提供依据。
本建模研究预测了2025年至2035年日本股骨骨折手术的数量。预计未来十年日本双极半髋关节置换术的数量将增加。相比之下，切开复位内固定术的数量预计将保持稳定，但有波动。
