School of Mathematical Sciences, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China.
College of Science, Shanghai Institute of Technology, Shanghai 201418, China.
Chaos. 2021 Sep;31(9):093134. doi: 10.1063/5.0061086.
To better explore asymmetrical interaction between epidemic spreading and awareness diffusion in multiplex networks, we distinguish susceptibility and infectivity between aware and unaware individuals, relax the degree of immunization, and take into account three types of generation mechanisms of individual awareness. We use the probability trees to depict the transitions between distinct states for nodes and then write the evolution equation of each state by means of the microscopic Markovian chain approach (MMCA). Based on the MMCA, we theoretically analyze the possible steady states and calculate the critical threshold of epidemics, related to the structure of epidemic networks, the awareness diffusion, and their coupling configuration. The achieved analytical results of the mean-field approach are consistent with those of the numerical Monte Carlo simulations. Through the theoretical analysis and numerical simulations, we find that global awareness can reduce the final scale of infection when the regulatory factor of the global awareness ratio is less than the average degree of the epidemic network but it cannot alter the onset of epidemics. Furthermore, the introduction of self-awareness originating from infected individuals not only reduces the epidemic prevalence but also raises the epidemic threshold, which tells us that it is crucial to enhance the early warning of symptomatic individuals during pandemic outbreaks. These results give us a more comprehensive and deep understanding of the complicated interaction between epidemic transmission and awareness diffusion and also provide some practical and effective recommendations for the prevention and control of epidemics.
为了更好地探索多重网络中流行传播和意识扩散之间的非对称相互作用,我们区分了有意识和无意识个体的易感性和传染性,放宽了免疫程度,并考虑了个体意识的三种产生机制。我们使用概率树来描绘节点之间不同状态的转换,然后通过微观马尔可夫链方法(MMCA)来编写每个状态的演化方程。基于 MMCA,我们从理论上分析了可能的稳定状态,并计算了与流行网络结构、意识扩散及其耦合配置相关的流行病的临界阈值。平均场方法的所得分析结果与数值蒙特卡罗模拟的结果一致。通过理论分析和数值模拟,我们发现当全局意识比率的调节因子小于流行网络的平均度时,全局意识可以降低最终感染规模,但不能改变流行病的发生。此外,来自感染个体的自我意识的引入不仅降低了流行的患病率,而且提高了流行的阈值,这告诉我们,在大流行爆发期间,增强对有症状个体的早期预警至关重要。这些结果使我们对流行传播和意识扩散之间复杂的相互作用有了更全面和深入的了解,并为流行病的预防和控制提供了一些实际有效的建议。