韩国针对 SARS-CoV-2 的接触调整免疫水平和实现群体免疫的前景。

Contact-adjusted Immunity Levels against SARS-CoV-2 in Korea and Prospects for Achieving Herd Immunity.

机构信息

Department of Internal Medicine, National Cancer Center, Goyang, Korea.

Department of Statistics, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea.

出版信息

J Korean Med Sci. 2021 Oct 4;36(38):e272. doi: 10.3346/jkms.2021.36.e272.

Abstract

The proportion of population vaccinated cannot be directly translated into the herd immunity. We have to account for the age-stratified contact patterns to calculate the population immunity level, since not every individual gathers evenly. Here, we calculated the contact-adjusted population immunity against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in South Korea using age-specific incidence and vaccine uptake rate. We further explored options to achieve the theoretical herd immunity with age-varying immunity scenarios. As of June 21, 2021, when a quarter of the population received at least one dose of a coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine, the contact-adjusted immunity level was 12.5% under the social distancing level 1. When 80% of individuals aged 10 years and over gained immunity, we could achieve a 58.2% contact-adjusted immunity level. The pros and cons of vaccinating children should be weighed since the risks of COVID-19 for the young are less than the elderly, and the long-term safety of vaccines is still obscure.

摘要

人群的疫苗接种比例不能直接转化为群体免疫。我们必须考虑年龄分层的接触模式来计算人群免疫水平,因为并非每个个体的聚集程度都相同。在这里,我们使用特定年龄的发病率和疫苗接种率来计算韩国针对严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒 2 的接触调整后的人群免疫力。我们进一步探讨了通过年龄相关免疫情景来实现理论群体免疫的选择。截至 2021 年 6 月 21 日,当四分之一的人口至少接种了一剂 2019 年冠状病毒病(COVID-19)疫苗时,在保持社交距离 1 级的情况下,接触调整后的免疫力水平为 12.5%。当 10 岁及以上人群中有 80%获得免疫力时,我们可以实现 58.2%的接触调整后免疫力水平。由于 COVID-19 对年轻人的风险小于老年人,并且疫苗的长期安全性仍不清楚,因此应该权衡为儿童接种疫苗的利弊。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/2308/8490791/e847164b3206/jkms-36-e272-g001.jpg

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