Nomogram to Predict the Survival of Chinese Patients with Alcohol-Related Liver Disease.

OBJECTIVES

Alcohol-related liver disease is an increasing public health burden in China, but there is a lack of models to predict its prognosis. This study established a nomogram for predicting the survival of Chinese patients with alcohol-related liver disease (ALD).

METHODS

Hospitalized alcohol-related liver disease patients were retrospectively enrolled from 2015 to 2018 and followed up for 24 months to evaluate survival profiles. A total of 379 patients were divided into a training cohort ( = 265) and validation cohort ( = 114). Cox proportional hazard survival analysis identified survival factors of the patients in the training cohort. A nomogram was built and internally validated.

RESULTS

The 3-month, 6-month, 12-month, and 24-month survival rates for the training cohort were 82.6%, 81.1%, 74.3%, and 64.5%, respectively. The Cox analysis showed relapse (=0.001), cirrhosis (=0.044), liver cancer ( < 0.001), and a model for end-stage liver diseases score of ≥21 (=0.041) as independent prognostic factors. A nomogram was built, which predicted the survival of patients in the training cohort with a concordance index of 0.749 and in the internal validation cohort with a concordance index of 0.756.

CONCLUSION

The long-term survival of Chinese alcohol-related liver disease patients was poor with a 24-month survival rate of 64.5%. Relapse, cirrhosis, liver cancer, and a model for end-stage liver disease score of ≥21 were independent risk factors for those patients. A nomogram was developed and internally validated for predicting the probability of their survival at different time points.