Department of Midwifery, Faculty of Health and Caring Sciences, University of West Attica, Athens, Greece.
Bosn J Basic Med Sci. 2022 Apr 1;22(2):291-299. doi: 10.17305/bjbms.2021.6431.
Preterm births account for almost 1 million deaths globally. The objective of this study is to develop and evaluate a model that assists clinicians in assessing the risk of preterm birth, using fuzzy multicriteria analysis. The model allows experts to incorporate their intuition and judgment into the decision-making process and takes into consideration six (6) risk dimensions reflecting the socio-economic, behavioural and medical profile of pregnant women, thus adopting a holistic approach to risk assessment. Each risk dimension is further analysed and measured in terms of risk factors associated with it. Data was collected from a selected group of 35 experts, each one with more than 20 years of obstetric experience. The model criteria were selected after a thorough literature analysis, so as to ensure a holistic approach to risk assessment. The criteria were reviewed by the experts and the model structure was finalised. The fuzzy analytic hierarchy method was applied to calculate the relative importance of each criterion and subsequent use of the model in assessing and ranking pregnant women by their preterm risk. The proposed model utilises fuzzy logic and multicriteria analysis. It addresses the multifactorial nature of decision making when assessing the preterm birth risk. It also incorporates the obstetricians' intuitive judgement during risk assessment and it can be used to classify cases based upon their risk level. Additionally, it can be applied to evaluate the risk of individual cases in a personalised manner. The proposed model is compared and validated for its predictive value against judgments made by experts.
早产导致全球近 100 万人死亡。本研究旨在开发并评估一种模型，该模型使用模糊多准则分析来帮助临床医生评估早产风险。该模型允许专家将他们的直觉和判断纳入决策过程，并考虑了反映孕妇社会经济、行为和医疗状况的六个（6）风险维度，从而采用整体方法进行风险评估。每个风险维度都进一步根据与其相关的风险因素进行分析和测量。数据是从一个由 35 名专家组成的选定小组中收集的，每位专家都有 20 多年的产科经验。在对文献进行全面分析后，选择了模型标准，以确保进行全面的风险评估。专家们对标准进行了审查，并最终确定了模型结构。应用模糊层次分析法计算每个标准的相对重要性，并随后使用该模型评估和对孕妇进行早产风险排名。所提出的模型利用模糊逻辑和多准则分析。它解决了在评估早产风险时决策的多因素性质。它还结合了产科医生在风险评估过程中的直观判断，可用于根据风险水平对病例进行分类。此外，它还可以用于以个性化的方式评估个别病例的风险。将所提出的模型与专家的判断进行了比较和验证，以评估其预测价值。
