School of Environment, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China.
State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Wetland Ecology and Vegetation Restoration, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021 Oct 4;18(19):10437. doi: 10.3390/ijerph181910437.
In recent years, the main kiwifruit producing region, central-south Shaanxi Province, has often suffered from the threat of extreme high temperatures. Assessing the risk of high-temperature disasters in the region is essential for the rational planning of agricultural production and the development of resilience measures. In this study, a database was established to assess the risk of a high-temperature disaster to kiwifruit. Then, four aspects, hazard, vulnerability, exposure and disaster prevention and mitigation capacity, were taken into account and 19 indexes were selected to make an assessment of the risk of a high-temperature disaster. At the same time, 16 indexes were selected for the assessment of the climatic suitability of kiwifruit in terms of light, heat, water, soil and topography, and were used as one of the indexes for exposure assessment. The analytic hierarchy process and the entropy weighting method were combined to solve the weights for each index. The results reveal that: (1) The Guanzhong Plain has a high climatic suitability for kiwifruit, accounting for 15.14% of the study area. (2) The central part of the study area and southern Shaanxi are at high risk, accounting for 22.7% of the study area. The major kiwifruit producing areas in Shaanxi Province (e.g., Baoji) are at a low risk level, which is conducive to the development of the kiwifruit industry. Our study is the first to provide a comprehensive assessment of the risk of a high-temperature disaster to the economic fruit kiwifruit, providing a reference for disaster resilience and mitigation.
近年来，中国中南部的陕西省主要猕猴桃产区经常受到极端高温的威胁。评估该地区高温灾害风险对于合理规划农业生产和制定抵御灾害措施至关重要。本研究建立了一个数据库，以评估猕猴桃遭受高温灾害的风险。然后，考虑了危害、脆弱性、暴露和防灾减灾能力四个方面，并选择了 19 个指标来评估高温灾害的风险。同时，选择了 16 个指标来评估猕猴桃在光、热、水、土壤和地形方面的气候适宜性，并将其作为暴露评估的指标之一。采用层次分析法和熵权法相结合的方法确定了各指标的权重。结果表明：（1）关中平原猕猴桃气候适宜性较高，占研究区的 15.14%。（2）研究区中部和南部地区风险较高，占研究区的 22.7%。陕西省主要猕猴桃产区（如宝鸡）风险水平较低，有利于猕猴桃产业的发展。本研究首次对经济水果猕猴桃遭受高温灾害的风险进行了全面评估，为灾害抵御和减轻提供了参考。
