Guided therapy selection in rheumatoid arthritis using a molecular signature response classifier: an assessment of budget impact and clinical utility.

Patients with moderate to severe rheumatoid arthritis (RA) can be treated with a range of targeted therapies following inadequate response to conventional synthetic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs such as methotrexate. Whereas clinical practice guidelines provide no formal recommendations for initial targeted therapies, the tumor necrosis factor alpha inhibitor (TNFi) class is the prevalent first-line selection based on clinician experience, its safety profile, and/or formulary requirements, while also being the costliest. Most patients do not achieve adequate clinical response with a first-line TNFi, however. A molecular signature response classifier (MSRC) test that assesses RA-related biomarkers can identify patients who are unlikely to achieve adequate response to TNFi-class therapies. To model cost-effectiveness of MSRC-guided, first-line targeted therapy selection compared with current standard care. This budget impact analysis used data sourced from August to September 2020. The prevalence of each first-line targeted therapy was obtained using market intelligence from Datamonitor/Informa PLC Rheumatology Dashboard Forecast 2020, and the average first-year cost of treatment for each class was calculated using wholesale acquisition costs from IBM Micromedex RED BOOK Online. Average effectiveness for each class was based on manufacturer-reported ACR50 response rates (American College of Rheumatology adequate response criteria of 50% improvement at 6 months after therapy initiation). The impact of MSRC testing on first therapy selection was predicted based on a third party-generated decision-impact study that analyzed potential alterations in rheumatologist prescribing patterns after receiving MSRC test reports. Sensitivity analysis evaluated potential impacts of variation in first-year medication cost, adherence to MSRC report, and test price on the first-year cost of treatment. Cost for response (first-year therapy cost therapy divided by probability of achieving ACR50) was compared between standard care and MSRC-guided care. The estimated cost for first-year, standard-care treatment was $65,117, with 80% of patients initiating treatment with a TNFi. Cost for achieving ACR50 response was $177,046. After applying MSRC-guided patient stratification and therapy selection, the first-year cost was $56,543, net of test price, with 49.0% of patients initiating with a TNFi. First-year MSRC-guided care cost, including test price, was estimated at $117,103, a 33.9% improvement over standard care. Sensitivity analysis showed a net cost improvement for guided care vs standard care across all scenarios. Patients predicted to be inadequate TNFi responders, when modeled with lower-priced alternatives, were predicted to show increased ACR50 response rates. Those with MSRC test results indicating a first-line TNFi were predicted to show an ACR50 response rate superior to that for any other class. In this model, if implemented clinically, MSRC-guided care might save the US health care system more than $850 million annually and improve ACR50 by up to 31.3%. Precision medicine using MSRC-guided patient stratification and therapy selection may both decrease cost and improve efficacy of targeted RA therapies. This work was funded in full by Scipher Medicine Corporation, which participated in data analysis and interpretation and drafting, reviewing, and approving the publication. All authors contributed to data analysis and interpretation and publication preparation, maintaining control over the final content. Arnell, Withers, and Connolly-Strong are employees of and have stock ownership in Scipher Medicine Corporation. Bergman has received consulting fees from AbbVie, Gilead, GlaxoSmithKline, Novartis, Pfizer, Regeneron, Sanofi, and Scipher Medicine and owns stock or stock options in Johnson & Johnson. Kenney, Logan, and Lim-Harashima are consultants for Scipher Medicine Corporation. Basu has nothing to disclose.