Institute for Mathematical Research, Universiti Putra Malaysia, 43400 UPM, Serdang, Selangor, Malaysia.
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Science, Universiti Putra Malaysia, 43400 UPM, Serdang, Selangor, Malaysia.
Sci Rep. 2021 Oct 20;11(1):20739. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-99541-0.
Since the first coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak appeared in Wuhan, mainland China on December 31, 2019, the geographical spread of the epidemic was swift. Malaysia is one of the countries that were hit substantially by the outbreak, particularly in the second wave. This study aims to simulate the infectious trend and trajectory of COVID-19 to understand the severity of the disease and determine the approximate number of days required for the trend to decline. The number of confirmed positive infectious cases [as reported by Ministry of Health, Malaysia (MOH)] were used from January 25, 2020 to March 31, 2020. This study simulated the infectious count for the same duration to assess the predictive capability of the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model. The same model was used to project the simulation trajectory of confirmed positive infectious cases for 80 days from the beginning of the outbreak and extended the trajectory for another 30 days to obtain an overall picture of the severity of the disease in Malaysia. The transmission rate, β also been utilized to predict the cumulative number of infectious individuals. Using the SIR model, the simulated infectious cases count obtained was not far from the actual count. The simulated trend was able to mimic the actual count and capture the actual spikes approximately. The infectious trajectory simulation for 80 days and the extended trajectory for 110 days depicts that the inclining trend has peaked and ended and will decline towards late April 2020. Furthermore, the predicted cumulative number of infectious individuals tallies with the preparations undertaken by the MOH. The simulation indicates the severity of COVID-19 disease in Malaysia, suggesting a peak of infectiousness in mid-March 2020 and a probable decline in late April 2020. Overall, the study findings indicate that outbreak control measures such as the Movement Control Order (MCO), social distancing and increased hygienic awareness is needed to control the transmission of the outbreak in Malaysia.
自 2019 年 12 月 31 日中国大陆武汉首次出现 2019 年冠状病毒病（COVID-19）疫情以来，疫情在地理上迅速蔓延。马来西亚是受疫情影响较大的国家之一，尤其是在第二波疫情中。本研究旨在模拟 COVID-19 的传染病趋势和轨迹，以了解疾病的严重程度，并确定趋势下降所需的大约天数。确诊阳性感染病例数[由马来西亚卫生部（MOH）报告]取自 2020 年 1 月 25 日至 2020 年 3 月 31 日。本研究模拟了相同时间段内的传染病计数，以评估易感-感染-恢复（SIR）模型的预测能力。相同的模型用于预测从疫情开始的 80 天内确诊阳性感染病例的模拟轨迹，并将轨迹延长 30 天，以获得马来西亚疾病严重程度的全貌。使用 SIR 模型，预测的累积感染人数的传输率，β也被利用。使用 SIR 模型，模拟的传染病病例数与实际病例数相差不远。模拟趋势能够模拟实际病例数，并大致捕捉到实际高峰。80 天的传染病轨迹模拟和 110 天的扩展轨迹表明，上升趋势已经达到峰值并结束，将在 2020 年 4 月下旬下降。此外，预测的累积感染人数与 MOH 所做的准备相符。模拟表明 COVID-19 疾病在马来西亚的严重性，表明感染高峰期在 2020 年 3 月中旬，可能在 2020 年 4 月下旬下降。总体而言，研究结果表明，马来西亚需要采取疫情控制措施，如行动管制令（MCO）、社会隔离和提高卫生意识，以控制疫情的传播。
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