Abidemi Afeez, Zainuddin Zaitul Marlizawati, Aziz Nur Arina Bazilah
Department of Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru, Johor Malaysia.
Department of Mathematical Sciences, Federal University of Technology, Akure, P.M.B. 704 Ondo State Nigeria.
Eur Phys J Plus. 2021;136(2):237. doi: 10.1140/epjp/s13360-021-01205-5. Epub 2021 Feb 19.
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has posed a serious threat to both the human health and economy of the affected nations. Despite several control efforts invested in breaking the transmission chain of the disease, there is a rise in the number of reported infected and death cases around the world. Hence, there is the need for a mathematical model that can reliably describe the real nature of the transmission behaviour and control of the disease. This study presents an appropriately developed deterministic compartmental model to investigate the effect of different pharmaceutical (treatment therapies) and non-pharmaceutical (particularly, human personal protection and contact tracing and testing on the exposed individuals) control measures on COVID-19 population dynamics in Malaysia. The data from daily reported cases of COVID-19 between 3 March and 31 December 2020 are used to parameterize the model. The basic reproduction number of the model is estimated. Numerical simulations are carried out to demonstrate the effect of various control combination strategies involving the use of personal protection, contact tracing and testing, and treatment control measures on the disease spread. Numerical simulations reveal that the implementation of each strategy analysed can significantly reduce COVID-19 incidence and prevalence in the population. However, the results of effectiveness analysis suggest that a strategy that combines both the pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical control measures averts the highest number of infections in the population.
2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）大流行对受影响国家的人类健康和经济都构成了严重威胁。尽管投入了多项防控措施来阻断该疾病的传播链，但全球报告的感染病例和死亡病例数量仍在上升。因此，需要一个能够可靠描述该疾病传播行为和防控实际情况的数学模型。本研究提出了一个经过适当开发的确定性 compartmental 模型，以研究不同的药物（治疗疗法）和非药物（特别是个人防护以及对暴露个体的接触者追踪和检测）防控措施对马来西亚 COVID-19 人群动态的影响。使用 2020 年 3 月 3 日至 12 月 31 日期间每日报告的 COVID-19 病例数据对模型进行参数化。估计了该模型的基本再生数。进行了数值模拟，以展示涉及使用个人防护、接触者追踪和检测以及治疗控制措施的各种防控组合策略对疾病传播的影响。数值模拟表明，所分析的每种策略的实施都能显著降低人群中 COVID-19 的发病率和患病率。然而，有效性分析结果表明，将药物和非药物防控措施相结合的策略能避免人群中最多的感染病例。
