Department of Economics, School of Business and Economics, University of Oviedo, Oviedo, Spain.
Oviedo Efficiency Group, University of Oviedo, Oviedo, Spain.
Health Econ. 2022 Jan;31(1):154-173. doi: 10.1002/hec.4437. Epub 2021 Oct 23.
This paper examines the propagation of COVID-19 across the Spanish provinces and assesses the effectiveness of the Spanish lockdown of the population implemented on March 14, 2020 in order to battle this pandemic. To achieve these objectives, a standard spatial econometric model used in economics is adapted to resemble the popular reproduction models employed in the epidemiological literature. In addition, we introduce a counterfactual exercise that allows us to examine the Gross domestic product (GDP) gains of bringing forward the date of the Spanish Lockdown. We find that the number of COVID-19 cases would have been reduced by 70.4% in the absence of spatial propagation between the Spanish provinces. We also determine that the lockdown prevented the propagation of the virus within and between provinces. As such, the Spanish lockdown reduced the number of potential COVID-19 cases by 82.8%. However, the number of coronavirus cases would have been reduced by an additional 11.6% if the lockdown had been brought forward to March 7, 2020. Finally, an earlier lockdown would have saved approximately 26,900,000,000 euros.
本文考察了 COVID-19 在西班牙各省份的传播情况，并评估了西班牙于 2020 年 3 月 14 日实施的人口封锁措施在抗击这一流行病方面的有效性。为了实现这些目标，我们对经济学中常用的标准空间计量经济学模型进行了调整，使其类似于流行病学文献中使用的流行传播模型。此外，我们引入了一个反事实的练习，使我们能够检验提前实施西班牙封锁措施对国内生产总值（GDP）的影响。我们发现，如果西班牙各省份之间不存在空间传播，COVID-19 的病例数量将减少 70.4%。我们还确定，封锁措施阻止了病毒在省内和省际之间的传播。因此，西班牙的封锁措施使潜在 COVID-19 病例数量减少了 82.8%。然而，如果封锁措施提前到 2020 年 3 月 7 日实施，冠状病毒病例数量将额外减少 11.6%。最后，提前封锁将节省约 269 亿。
