PEGASE, INRAE, Agrocampus-Ouest, FR-35590 Saint-Gilles, France.
PEGASE, INRAE, Agrocampus-Ouest, FR-35590 Saint-Gilles, France.
Animal. 2022 Jun;16 Suppl 2:100372. doi: 10.1016/j.animal.2021.100372. Epub 2021 Oct 22.
Climate change is already a reality for livestock production. In contrast to the ruminant species, little is known about the impacts and the vulnerability of pig European Union (EU) sector to climate warming. This review deals with the potential and the already measurable effects of climate change in pig production. Based on evidences published in the literature, climate change may reduce EU pig productivity by indirectly reducing the availability of crops usually used in pig feeding, spreading the vector or pathogen to new locations and increasing the risk of exposure to cereals contaminated with mycotoxins; and directly mainly by inducing heat stress and increasing the animal's susceptibility to various diseases. Provision of realistic projections of possible impacts of future climate changes on EU pig sector is a prerequisite to evaluate its vulnerability and propose effective adaptation strategies. Simulation modelling approach is the most commonly used approach for exploring the effects of medium or long-term climate change/variability in pig production. One of the main challenges for this modelling approach is to account for both direct and indirect possible effects but also to uncertainties in parameter values that substantially increase the uncertainty estimates for model projections. The last part of the paper focus on the main issues that still need to be overcome for developing a decision support tools for simulating the direct and indirect effect of climate change in pig farms.
气候变化已经对畜牧业生产产生了影响。与反刍动物相比，人们对气候变化对欧洲联盟（EU）养猪业的影响和脆弱性知之甚少。本文综述了气候变化对养猪生产的潜在和已经可测量的影响。基于文献中发表的证据，气候变化可能会通过间接减少通常用于猪饲料的农作物的供应、将媒介或病原体传播到新的地点以及增加接触受霉菌毒素污染的谷物的风险，从而降低欧盟的养猪生产力；并直接通过诱导热应激和增加动物对各种疾病的易感性来降低欧盟的养猪生产力。对未来气候变化对欧盟养猪业可能产生的影响进行现实的预测，是评估其脆弱性并提出有效适应策略的前提。模拟建模方法是探索中长期气候变化/可变性对养猪生产影响的最常用方法。这种建模方法的主要挑战之一是既要考虑直接和间接的可能影响，又要考虑参数值的不确定性，这大大增加了模型预测的不确定性估计。本文的最后一部分重点介绍了在开发用于模拟养猪场气候变化直接和间接影响的决策支持工具方面仍需要克服的主要问题。
